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View Diary: Daily Kos Election Morning Digest: What's the matter with Michigan? (47 comments)

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  •  None of the challengers in those states... (9+ / 0-)

    ...has gotten to "critical mass" state wide name recognition...yet. I will concede that Incumbency is a huge advantage, but of the three, Walker is held in highest esteem by his statewide base.

    None are in danger of being replaced in a nomination fight, but Snyder and Kasich really aren't the guys that the base in their states would "die on the hill" for. That's important because if we happen to get closer in polling around mid Summer (because the challengers get better name recognition traction, various progressive groups make visible gains in "constructing" a somewhat better November electorate, etc.) the GOP base activists are less likely to be able to fare better in the face of somewhat larger general electorates (than 2010) in Michigan and Ohio.

    That's not to discount Wisconsin: I'm pretty sure Walker is not going to skate to an easy victory. I've run into enough Wisconsin Dems who simply didn't believe that recall was appropriate, but that the regular election cycle is a completely different matter when it comes to Walker.

    Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Mon Feb 17, 2014 at 07:15:51 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Agreed, we have a real chance in all of those (1+ / 0-)
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      way too soon to be dismissing any of those races.

      •  Nah,... (1+ / 0-)
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        I agree with Stude Dude.  Barring scandal, all three are re-elected.  Throw in Corbett in PA, as well.  He just proposed a new budget that increases funding for public education, his main target since 2010.  Pennsylvanians like to re-elect their governors, and none of the challengers has any real mojo.  

        By mid summer, Corbett will have passed his fourth straight on-time budget (something the previous governor, Dem Ed Rendell, never did even once), and the teachers unions will be somewhat placated or mollified.  He will also have likely passed a plan to privatize the inane state liquor stores, something overwhelmingly popular with both parties voters (if not their politicians).  The "Alabama in the Middle" of PA will come out to vote, while the poor Dem base in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia won't even know there is an election going on.  

        Walker is actually popular, with a positive approval rating.  He won't win in a landslide, but he's way stronger than we like to admit.  He's basically won EVERY battle he's fought since his election, and he's picked some tough ones.  Michigan was the killing fields in 2010 for congressional Dems.  If that turnout demographic is even close to the same in 2014, Snyder will survive.  Ohio is the most republican state of the four, still suffering from crushing recession UE, which bodes well for a Kasich campaign against Obama.  

        All that said, I think Corbett will be the comeback story of the election year.

        •  I'll put money against Corbett (0+ / 0-)

          the rest are too close to call but it won't require scandals for dems to win. The dem candidates are all still underknown and in some cases primaries haven't even been held yet. Michigan especially has a history of showing repubs ahead or races competitive but dems end up winning solidly.

          But if you want to bet on Corbett in PA, let me know. I'm here.

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