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View Diary: After calling Obama a 'subhuman mongrel,' Ted Nugent campaigns for Texas's Greg Abbott (309 comments)

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  •  Self-selection-->Adverse selection (6+ / 0-)

    ------------->Death spiral

    When a party increasingly self-selects among the people who constitute its strongest and most consistent base voters and supporters by increasingly and more openly and emphatically emphasizing the values and policies that they most like, that usually leads to those voters and supporters being increasingly more loyal and energized, but also to its less loyal and consistent voters and supporters being less loyal and consistent as they find themselves increasingly uncomfortable with those values and policies , so that it has fewer and fewer TOTAL voters and supporters. This is true of either party, and not just the GOP.

    However, the GOP has done this far more intensively in recent years, and on increasingly more extreme values and policies that most voters aren't all that comfortable with, such that it's increasingly forced to win with mostly its core group of voters and supporters. Which makes it ever harder to win. Which makes it become even more openly radical (thus the shutdown and threat to default). And so on. (This is called adverse selection.) At a certain point this becomes a death spiral and your only true supporters are folks like Ted Nugent and Victoria Jackson. Yeah, that's a recipe for electoral success.

    Of course, this takes place over time and election cycles. But eventually it will kill the GOP in its current form. That is an inevitability. First in certain regions (which has already happened, e.g. New England), then nationally (already happening, e.g. Obama), and finally in all regions (of which there are signs in states like KY & TX). The GOP can reverse this, by being more moderate (in messaging AND policy). But we all know that's not going to happen. Inertia tends to dominate politics, and the GOP's current trajectory has it going off that cliff in 10-20 years, possibly sooner. I'm guessing sooner.

    At which point it will be reborn and begin its slow rebuilding process. But we're nowhere near there yet. A whole generation or two has to be replaced first. And that takes time. Tremendous opening and opportunity for Dems.

    "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

    by kovie on Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 07:09:41 AM PST

    •  You're assuming they won't cheat (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jilikins

      Whenever racist extremism was whipped up in the South, the end game was to get enough racists to the polls to rewrite the laws to make it permanently harder for blacks to vote.  Now it's happening again.  Wake up and smell the Crow.

      Of course the Feds will object, but that didn't work in 1876, did it?  So who will punish states like Texas if they actually annul the 13th and 14th Amendments?  The corporations?  They've been funding the Right for 45 years towards this end.

      •  Yes, I believe the feds will (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jilikins

        1876 conditions don't apply anymore, much as they'd like to believe otherwise. The clock is running out on the southern strategy. In 10 years it will be dead.

        "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

        by kovie on Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 09:15:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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