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View Diary: Remember when reapportionment would help Republicans? (197 comments)

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  •  Big State Math (17+ / 0-)

    Reliably Blue - CA (55) NY (29) IL(20)
    Usually Blue - PA(20) MI (16) WI(10) MN (10)
    Turning Consistantly Blue - VA (13)

    That is 173 EVs.

    Get TX (38) and that's the ball game because I don't the Republicans are going to be flipping a lot of Northern states anytime soon.

    I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

    by Edge PA on Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 08:27:56 AM PST

    •  Well Edge, adding Texas just gets you to 211 (6+ / 0-)

      and you forgot to add NM to the turning consistently Blue group. but your point is made, if Texas ever becomes a purple state the Republicans are screwed because they know that they cant win in the Northeast, Midwest or Far West, and Texas in their biggest state in terms of EVs. they wont be able to make up for losing Texas.

    •  Texas could tumble in 2016. (4+ / 0-)

      When it does, there's no way the GOP will ever again dominate congress or the executive.

      43 House Republicans want to sue Barack Obama for being President.

      by Geardup on Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 08:41:12 AM PST

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    •  but (4+ / 0-)

      will Pa. change how EV's are counted? And if so what happens?
      But if Pa. does it....it no longer is a Battleground state. Urban areas go Dem. Rural go Stupid. no need to run ads.
      and think of all the money that wont be spent on ads in Pa.
      Im sure Comcast and other media outlets  are  lobbying hard against the plan to shift EV votes from winner take all. should be intresting!

      In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on the things you have long taken for granted." Bertrand Russell (1872-1970)

      by lippythelion69 on Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 09:34:35 AM PST

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      •  Only 2 states-Maine and Nebraska split thier EVs (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GleninCA

        in practice, splitting the Evs has only happened once in modern times - in 2008 when Obama won the district containing Omaha m getting one of Nebraskas 5 Evs. He didn't carry that district in 2012 though, part of the EV drop-off from 2008.

      •  If PA tries, it's this year (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TKO333, mconvente, cville townie

        Corbett is going to lose his re-election bid and that would put an end to changing EV counting methods.

        Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves. - William Pitt

        by Phoenix Rising on Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 09:55:17 AM PST

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      •  I don't see thinking Republicans (0+ / 0-)

        (I know ... I know ...)

        Pushing this.  Short term the first states will probably help, but the more states that adopt this model, two things will happen, it will dilute a states relative importance and within a state it will increase the importance of cities.

        And Democractes win cities.

        One of those ideas that look better on paper than reality.  I actually think the popular vote thing happens before this although I don't think either is likely any time soon.

        I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

        by Edge PA on Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 11:12:26 AM PST

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        •  Wrong (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Edge PA

          Congressional districts even without gerrymandering typically increase the weight of the rural vote compared to the statewide totals.

          •  But cities allow more efficient use of ad dollars (0+ / 0-)

            Of course I could be wrong, but my main point is that changing the EV system would have unintended consquences.

            I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

            by Edge PA on Thu Feb 20, 2014 at 06:41:43 AM PST

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    •  Don't forget Florida (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mconvente, Mokurai, Edge PA

      With the exception of the Bush Nightmare (and I don't count 2000), it's turning consistently blue.  That's 29 electoral votes.  And if we can get the Governorship back we'll have fair elections again and the margin will be more positive towards Democrats (no shenanigans at the polls and voting purges).

      A state ballot initiative in 2010 still has not been put into place despite it being law.  It's gone to the State Supreme Court who says it must be implemented but suddenly the latest re-drawn maps have been 'destroyed'.  Lawmakers in safe districts have been fighting it for 4 years.  That includes some Democrats but the map overall favors Republicans.

      https://www.fairdistrictsnow.org/...

      •  I almost added FL (0+ / 0-)

        But I don't understand FL politics ... For Example the great Democract hope is an ex-Republican who last ran as an independent, and its a good thing.

        I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

        by Edge PA on Thu Feb 20, 2014 at 06:43:24 AM PST

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