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View Diary: Republicans attack Obama budget over Social Security cuts, except this time it's for not having them (63 comments)

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  •  ??? (2+ / 0-)
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    sweatyb, TJ

    I see GOP elected officials in state houses from coast to coast doing crazy shit and gerrymandered House that is going to take another 8 years to dislodge. Those are numbers. I have no idea what numbers you're talking about.

    Not even the Administration is defending the 2011 debt showdown. The president himself said it was awful, it would never happen again, and showed everyone who advocated it the door.

    You can't possibly be coming to the defense of that debacle.

    •  State houses? The comment was about Congress. (2+ / 0-)
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      joe from Lowell, doroma

      The Republican congress has seen their favorable numbers destroyed since the President came into office.

    •  You have no idea what polling numbers are? Um ok. (0+ / 0-)

      Here are the numbers I'm talking about:

      The CNN poll found that John Boehner’s approval rating has fallen off a cliff. In July, Boehner had a 43% favorable rating and a 32% unfavorable rating, (net +11). After the debt ceiling debacle the numbers have reversed. Boehner now has a 33% favorable rating, and 40% unfavorable rating. The Speaker of the House has gone from a plus eleven to a net minus seven. That is an 18 point negative swing in one month.
      Seriously, you never knew about what the debt ceiling deal did to the Republicans' political standing? This is the first time you've seen these numbers?

      Yes, the Republicans won an election in 2010, before any of this entitlement-cutting talk began. And? Is that the end of history?

      If you want to do something about those Republican statehouses, it takes wins in the field of public opinion to win the elections necessary to take them back.

      And in case you haven't noticed by now, what the President says is a reflection of his political strategy, more than his honest take on events. Taking politicians' words at face value, when they have a motive to spin or shade in a certain direction, is not a terribly good way to understand what's going on.

      Art is the handmaid of human good.

      by joe from Lowell on Fri Feb 21, 2014 at 11:30:19 AM PST

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      •  Seriously? (0+ / 0-)

        You really think John Boehner's approval rating makes any difference at all?

        Let me tell you the Congressional GOP's approval rating in November of 2010: 25%. Want to know what it was in 2012? Just over 12. Yet the GOP House was re-elected.

        Nobody gives a shit about John Boehner's approval rating. I don't even know why its even polled, because nobody in America is going into a voting both thinking about John Boehner. 9 out of 10 Americans don't even know who he is. He isn't a factor in this thing.

        Approval ratings only have meaning when they lead to electoral validation. That's the whole point of polling...estimating the ballot box, which is the only poll that matters at the congressional level.

        But for any national election, it is the presidents approval rating that matters more than any other national poll. That's why Democrats won in 2006 and why the GOP won in 2010. The 2011 debt fiasco just tanked Obama's numbers. I know, because I wrote a diary about it.

        There's been too much written on how many people in the administration, from former staff to the president himself, have described the 2011 debt negotiations were an unmitigated disaster that should never happen again. Not some brilliant 11th dimensional stratagem. I don't know why you continue to believe it was.

        •  His rating, and his party's? Yes, they matter. Duh (0+ / 0-)

          You're seriously going to sit here and argue that public support for, and opposition to, political parties is irrelevant to politics?

          Um ok. I think that's pretty much all I need to hear.

          Two-party politics is a zero-sum game. If something causes your numbers to drop a little and the other guy's to drop a lot, you scored a victory. You might have noticed, the "tanked" Obama, and his party, did quite well in the elections that followed those polling results.

          And, once again, I really don't care too much about what professional politicians say. Pay attention to what they do, if you actually want to understand what's going on.

          Or, selectively pay attention to what they say when it suits you, and ignore it when it doesn't, if what you really want is validation for what you want to believe. Totally up to you.

          The reason I continue to stand by the analysis that I've been working with since 2011 is because it has worked in predicting and describing every event since then. How about you, bad boy? Did the Republicans beat Obama with a great "club" in the 2012 elections based on his negotiating posture, as you predicted?

          When your narrative fails to explain reality, you should go with reality.

          Art is the handmaid of human good.

          by joe from Lowell on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 10:13:09 AM PST

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        •  BTW, I love the theory that gerrymandering... (0+ / 0-)

          which serves to attenuate the effects of political trends means that those trends aren't happening at all.

          Barack Obama didn't really win the confrontation or damage the Republicans' political position, you see, because gerrymandering reduced the scale of their electoral losses.

          That's not an analysis of the politics of the showdown; it's an excuse to pretend the politics of the showdown don't matter.

          Gee, who would want to do that? Certainly not someone who say the politics work out the opposite of their expectations.

          Art is the handmaid of human good.

          by joe from Lowell on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 10:35:24 AM PST

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