Skip to main content

View Diary: Preliminary US Senate Ratings (53 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  I'm not as worried about HI-Sen (6+ / 0-)

    Contrary to the diarist, I think the effects of the "Japanese women vote" are overstated, and disregards the fact that Hawaii polling is so awful and non-predictive to begin with that one can't assume much from the existing polls.  Hanabusa released one showing herself up 30 points at the start of the campaign.  Schatz's internals have only had him in the lead, and the rest have bounced back and forth.  At this point I assume it's a coin flip, but I give the edge to Schatz as his name recognition picks up and his incumbency starts to work to his advantage (at this point he's already been Senator for over a year).

    As long as Schatz remains popular, I think he'll make it through the primary.  He's already outraising Hanabusa by a significant amount, and he has a lot of institutional support lining up in his corner (though Hanabusa has powerful supporters as well).

    I'm expecting a repeat of the 2010 Colorado Dem Senate primary, where little known appointed Senator Michael Bennet ended up beating back a primary challenge from Andrew Romanoff.  I felt Romanoff would have beaten Bennet in an open seat situation, but Bennet's appointment gave him the edge.

    In any case, even if Hanabusa wins it's not the end of the world.  She's not a Blue Dog or anything, just your run of the mill appropriations-minded Hawaii machine Democrat.  I think she'd vote similarly to the late Senator Inouye.  Schatz on the other hand is undeniably a strong progressive, but it's not the end of the road for him if he gets booted.  He's in his early 40s and has a strong career ahead of him regardless.

    •  hanabusa IS a blue dog (0+ / 0-)

      or "new democrat coalition," as they now call themselves.

      The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

      by Laurence Lewis on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 02:21:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No she isn't (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        aoeu, ProudNewEnglander, Taget, jncca

        The New Democrats are not and never were the same as the Blue Dogs, quite apart from how important the Blue Dogs were in having a Democratic majority in the House.

        Look, I'm a socialist, so I think you'd know which of the two candidates I'd prefer, but it's hardly a tremendous difference, overall, and in any case, there's been a lot of invective over this previously in DKE, and I don't want it in my thread, so I'll thank you to stop complaining about Hanabusa here and just focus on who you think is more likely to win that primary and why, as this is a thread about predictions, not personal likes and dislikes. Thanks a lot.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:36:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

  • Recommended (144)
  • Community (71)
  • 2016 (57)
  • Environment (46)
  • Elections (44)
  • Media (40)
  • Republicans (39)
  • Hillary Clinton (36)
  • Trans-Pacific Partnership (33)
  • Iraq (32)
  • Barack Obama (32)
  • Law (32)
  • Civil Rights (31)
  • Culture (31)
  • Jeb Bush (30)
  • Climate Change (29)
  • Economy (25)
  • Labor (25)
  • Bernie Sanders (21)
  • White House (19)
  • Click here for the mobile view of the site