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View Diary: Preliminary US Senate Ratings (53 comments)

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  •  I'm not. (1+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY

    The spending has a point of diminishing returns.  We experienced it twice in CT.  No matter how much McMahon spent, she was despised more.  NC is a bit different than CT  but we saw the same dynamic happen in MO last cycle and Akin got trounced (granted he helped).  Same in MT, ND, OH and so on.  

    Hagan will get back up and Tillis will likely be so bloodied from the primary that one good blow will effectively knock him out.  He's so despised that it doesn't have to even be a good blow, but just a glancing one.  

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:40:22 AM PST

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    •  But what if Tillis doesn't win the primary? (0+ / 0-)

      And as you said, NC is way different from CT. I'm not sure your analysis of the elections in the other states is really accurate. Did all of those candidates take it on the chin for so long?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:07:25 PM PST

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      •  The others are worse (1+ / 0-)
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        MichaelNY

        Tillis is the best they have.  

        McCaskill was taking it on the chin well over a year before her election.  She was in the dumps.  Harry Reid was dead man walking in 2010.  Sherrod Brown had more money spent in his campaign attacking than most others in senate history.  Over $60 million from outside PACs were spent to defeat Brown.  he won by 6%.  Polls in March had him at 43%.  Granted they were Rasmussen.  Polls had him at 44% in October.  
         

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:55:57 PM PST

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        •  I remember Brown leading in the polls (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          pretty much throughout that race. Reid had plenty of money and ratfucked the Republican primary extremely effectively. McCaskill, likewise, ratfucked extremely effectively. So both of them ran ads during the Republican primaries that helped them a lot.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:59:01 PM PST

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          •  There were a few where Brown was tied (1+ / 0-)
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            MichaelNY

            Most were within the margin of error.

            What makes you think the Dems won't do the same with Hagan?  The GOP candidates all suck and Hagan runs about the same against most of the leaders of the pack.  The republican primary is only on May 6 so there is still plenty of time to rat fuck it.  The question though is who would the Dems prefer?  Harris, Bannon, Tillis or Grant?

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:14:43 PM PST

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