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View Diary: Obama: 'There will be costs' if Russia violates Ukrainian sovereignty (286 comments)

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  •  Because they're Russian commandos. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Horace Boothroyd III, nickrud

    About a week ago I had said that a Russian invasion of Eastern and Southern Ukraine was now plausible - this elevates it from plausible to "more likely than not, in the absence of a total surrender of the East and South by Kiev."  That surrender is sadly possible, Ukraine's not going to be aided by its allies, it seems, and I doubt that the provisional authorities in Kiev even have an accurate headcount of their military today.

    First Eastern Ukraine, then the rest of Ukraine.  What's DKos gonna say when it's eastern Poland - "Not our problem?"

    "The first drawback of anger is that it destroys your inner peace; the second is that it distorts your view of reality. If you come to understand that anger is really unhelpful, you can begin to distance yourself from anger." - The Dalai Lama

    by auron renouille on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 03:46:22 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  really? (0+ / 0-)

      Stalin didn't grab half of Poland until the Nazi-Soviet Pact gave him the green light and German destruction of Polish forces made it as easy as walking across the street. Putin is no Stalin, and you are suggesting he is planning to invade a NATO & EU armed nation? Really? Are you sure Putin is not planning to invade Sarah Palin's house? After all, he can see her when he raises his head.

      "Something has gone very wrong with America, not just its economy, but its ability to function as a democratic nation. And it’s hard to see when or how that wrongness will get fixed." Paul Krugman and Robin Wells

      by Reston history guy on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 04:49:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is Putin's third land grab. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        erichiro

        South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and now Crimea.

        I would love to be wrong.  Love to be.  But each time this gets worse, the more I fear that things are going to get really ugly.  May take 10, 15 years for things to get there, but we've gotta draw the line somewhere.

        Georgia dug its own hole, to some extent (not as much as people make it out to be), but here the Ukrainian military took not a single step towards provoking the Russians.

        The world has a duty to draw the line somewhere.  This seems as good a place as any, if not better given the present extreme weakness of the Ukrainian state.

        Do I think that it'll happen?  Nah, the risks of a wider conflict will deter intervention, and barring some diplomatic jujitsu (which could still happen, depending on how much Putin really cares about this), Ukraine may well be reduced to a rump agricultural state with no ports and not much industry.  But hey, Bush lied to get us into Iraq, so it's OK if the Ukrainians are impoverished!

        "The first drawback of anger is that it destroys your inner peace; the second is that it distorts your view of reality. If you come to understand that anger is really unhelpful, you can begin to distance yourself from anger." - The Dalai Lama

        by auron renouille on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 05:00:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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