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View Diary: We signed an agreement with the Ukraine? (55 comments)

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  •  My reading of the situation is this... (9+ / 0-)

    Russia will secure Crimea and its bases in Sebastapol.  That is what is happening right now.  The people of Crimea will either ask to federate with the Russian Federation or secede from Ukraine.  The US will breathe a sigh or relief (except for the Nuland-Kagan clan).  Life will go on in the remainder of Ukraine.

    Or, the Russian ethnic majority regions of Ukraine will use the Russian presence  in Crimea to ask for federation with the Russian Federation or secede from Ukraine.  Not sure of Ukraine reaction.  Russia has decision whether to send troops to defend these regions.  Things get a little dicey.

    Or, Russian troops invade Ukraine heading toward Kiev and intending to restore Yanukovych and his regime.  US and UK go to UN Security Council.  Things get really dicey.

    My expectation is that Russia's action will stop at the first option.  However, irrational passions have caused events to spiral out of hand before.  From the US-Russia perspective, it depends on how closely Kerry and Lavrov are consulting on the unfolding situation.

    Look for Obama to do a bit of chest-beating to satisfy the folks who think there's still a Cold War going on.

    50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

    by TarheelDem on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:06:04 PM PST

    •  Hi. I think Russia will stop at Crimea, too. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kevskos, FG, jayden, buffie

      Remember in Georgia, when we were assured that the Russian tanks were rolling all the way to Tblisi?

      Not so much, as it turned out. They secured the pro-Russian area. That's probably what will happen again.

      Art is the handmaid of human good.

      by joe from Lowell on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:21:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nailed it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      buffie

      Ethnic tensions in mainland Ukraine seem to be maybe settling down a bit? I enjoyed this story, as an example...

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:23:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  There is still a cold war going on.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fourthcornerman, FG

      ....it's just that we're not in it anymore, but the Ukranians sure are.  If Obama considers that chest thumping, it's pretty lame.  Why hasn't NATO deployed any operations to the Black Sea for "observation".  That would be some decent chest thumping.  But, it's all talk and Putin knows it.  He can do whatever he wants, 'cos the West doesn't care one bit.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:49:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  There are no Russian ethnic majority Oblasts (0+ / 0-)

      in Ukraine other than Crimea.

      And even in the Crimea it's not clear that there still is a Russian ethnic majority.

      There was one in 2001, with 58%, but there have been considerable changes in demographics there since 1989, so that majority may not even exist anymore.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

      by Lawrence on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 01:11:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  For Crimea (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        unfangus

        ....Sebastapol is determinative.  Russia is not going to cede that any more than the US is going to cede Guantanamo back to Cuba.

        50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

        by TarheelDem on Sat Mar 01, 2014 at 04:49:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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