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View Diary: Crimean Crisis Live Blog. Be Careful Trusting Info, lots of hoaxes going around. (53 comments)

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  •  it always comes back to the Sudetenland (2+ / 0-)
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    OllieGarkey, cfm
    "My feeling is that if this remains just Crimea, the Ukrainians will let it go for now," says Dmitry Gorenburg, Russia analyst at the US government-funded Center for Naval Analyses, part of the larger not-for-profit CNA Corporation.

    "But if Russia looks like it's going to take the rest of eastern Ukraine, they will fight even if it means they know they will lose."

    Some analysts explicitly compare events in Crimea with Nazi Germany's 1938 annexation of Czechoslovakia's German-speaking Sudetenland, followed months later by the rest of the country and the next year by Poland, sparking the Second World War.

    The important thing now, they argue, is to make sure Russia understands which lines - such as those around NATO Baltic members - really cannot be crossed.

    In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the Ukrainian conflict could accelerate Warsaw's efforts to modernize the army and gain energy independence.

    But most capitals, including Washington, have little economic choice but to cut defense spending.

    "The Russian military still doesn't really compare to ours," said former U.S. Navy officer Christopher Harmer, now senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington DC. "But they know where they want to use it and unlike us, they have the will to do so." (Reuters)

    Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013 (@eState4Column5).

    by annieli on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 03:20:25 PM PST

    •  also, the historical frame moves quicker now (0+ / 0-)
      Soviet troops invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968 after the "Prague Spring" saw a more moderate government come to power seen as much more open to the West.

      Despite Czech calls for support, Washington and its allies offered little more than criticism, reluctant to risk nuclear war following the Cuban Missile crisis six years earlier.

      The current stand-off is more dangerous than that over the 2008 Georgia war, where the West held back in part because the Georgian government was blamed for escalating the war through an attempt to seize the disputed region of South Ossetia.

      In sending troops to Ukraine, in contrast, Moscow is seen to have unilaterally invaded a sovereign state - although there have long been Russian forces in Crimea, which leases the base for its Black Sea Fleet in Sebastopol from Ukraine.

      Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013 (@eState4Column5).

      by annieli on Sun Mar 02, 2014 at 03:23:51 PM PST

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