Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/4 (322 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Three (0+ / 0-)

    Three GOP seats.

    And several D seats are "competitive" in the sense that Pennsylvania Pres was "competitive" in 2012 and 2008. I'd say only nine Democratic seats are truly competitive. They need to win six of those. Plus, as stated, KY, GA, and MS are now competitive seats. Just based on polling, candidate strength, and fundraising, I'd say that we're more likely to gain KY and GA than they are of flipping LA or AK, which I count as our strongest states out of the nine.

    Regardless, we still have eight months before the election. Most people aren't tuned in. Those states that are looking like blow-outs (MT, WV) will almost certainly become significantly more competitive, even if WV will still likely go for Capito and even if Daines likely will eke out a narrow win. We'll also start to know whether Kay Hagan's supporters will come home to roost, or whether they'll break for someone connected to the deeply unpopular NC leg. We'll see if Pryor can regain any of his lost ground.

    Point being that, at this point, crying doom 'n gloom for the Democratic Senate majority is ludicrous, and I'm not surprised to hear the Villagers screaming about it.

    At this time in 2012, the Villagers were talking about us losing the Senate. Republicans only had to make four gains, and it was easy to see where they could get it. MT, ND, NE, and MO looked as lost to us as NC, WV, SD, and AR are now (respectively). That's all they needed for a majority.

    Instead, we gained 2.

    The Villagers can go to hell. Their analyses mean nothing.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 07:59:41 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Well, MS is half competitive (0+ / 0-)

      Depends completely on the primary. Childers isn't coming anywhere near Cochran in a general. We also need the right candidate to emerge from the primary in GA as well.

      MT is going to surprise people. Our candidate has a terrific bio and now has the advantage of introducing himself as an incumbent. Like all MT statewide races, it's going to be a nail biter.

      I see SD, AR, and WV as pretty well gone. But I don't see any of the other nine as even leaning R. At least not at this point.

      •  On Childers...a link I posted over the weekend (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        mentioned that Childers entered the race after some polling done by the MDP. I don't know if the polling also tried to find out whether McDaniel would win the primary, although I wouldn't be surprised if it did, but I am certain that it asked about him versus McDaniel and that it showed him competitive, if not leading. Why else would he enter the race?

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 09:05:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Because he saw an opening (0+ / 0-)

          which doesn't equate to a lead.  And I'd be shocked if a poll showed him leading McDaniels.

          •  I wouldn't be be shocked to see Childers leading. (0+ / 0-)

            I wouldn't believe him leading, say, 52-44, but something like 43-39 wouldn't surprise me.

            But yeah, it's an opening. I just wonder if they polled Cochran versus McDaniel. Is that something the DSCC might do?

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 12:46:31 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Agree, mostly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        killacity

        I have AR as lean-R in my ratings, and SD as safe, but I think Capito will have a harder time of winning than most think. Tennant is also a good candidate, and she's running against someone who's served 1/3rd of the state for 14 years. People know Capito, but they don't know Tennant. Expect some movement in this race - maybe not enough to push her over the edge, but it's definitely a race that will need revisions to its rating as the race progresses.

        The DSCC isn't writing her off, and that's a pretty good sign that they see a path for victory for her.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 09:06:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Where's the myriad of polls that show WV (0+ / 0-)

          gone? I get why the fundamentals lean against us, but there's been little polling in recent months. Moreover, what we have seen might not be unreliable, but I don't think it's something you'd bet your house over. Like you said, Tennant is a good candidate and the DSCC isn't giving up.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 09:09:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  There was the.. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Caped Composer

            razzlefrazzlemussen poll showing Tennant at -14 just a couple weeks ago, plus the poll from January by Clarity that showed her down by 6. But you're right that we need more polls.

            If we say "PPP" in the mirror three times, do you think they'll show up and poll where we want them to?

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

            by Le Champignon on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 09:19:26 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The best way to get PPP's attention (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              AUBoy2007, Avedee, bythesea

              is to call them up and leave a hysterical, possibly racist voicemail, followed by a clear explanation that it's all a rouse and passionate begging for them to poll your state. That's my guess, anyway.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 09:24:50 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not super impressed with Tennant (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, Possible Liberal, lordpet8, JGibson

          But more than that, I just think Capito is too smart to make a huge mistake, and knowing the state a bit I just think it's going to be prohibitively hard to engineer good D turnout. Even if Tennant closes the polling gap, I think she still loses unless Capito proves to be a lot worse of a candidate than I think she is.

          Actually, of the three, AR is the one I still watch closely. I can't completely bury Prior until I see the casket. He's been too popular there for too long to write him off. And Cotton is a live wire.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

  • Recommended (178)
  • Community (72)
  • Civil Rights (51)
  • Baltimore (44)
  • Elections (40)
  • Culture (38)
  • Bernie Sanders (37)
  • Economy (34)
  • Texas (32)
  • Law (31)
  • 2016 (29)
  • Labor (29)
  • Environment (27)
  • Hillary Clinton (27)
  • Education (23)
  • Rescued (22)
  • Politics (21)
  • Barack Obama (21)
  • Freddie Gray (21)
  • Health Care (20)
  • Click here for the mobile view of the site