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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/7 (262 comments)

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  •  That's not exactly correct (7+ / 0-)

    The mail ballots went out with a 40-37-23 R-D-I ratio. Initially (end of the 2/27 week) the responses were coming in at 42-40-18 R-D-I ratio with about 2000 vote positive R difference. In the last week about 23 K mail and early votes came in (early in-person voting in a few places started on 3/1). These votes changed the ratio to 42-39-19 R-D-I and the raw total to a 3000 R plurality. So now the returns are at the same differential ratio as the requests. Since Sink has been polling with getting slightly more crossover Rs than Jolly has had crossover Ds the numbers aren't too worrisome yet. Remember this is an almost dead even registration district Ds to Rs. And in 2012 Ds did better on election day than in mail and early ballots. This supposed R "surge" as propounded by some probably compromised pundits like stpetersblog needs to be seen for what it has been so far a slight correction back to the numbers that reflect the original mail ballot ratio. By the way, the last couple of days have seen slowing in the returned ballots as would be expected as the time come closer to the election.

    •  What is worrisome (0+ / 0-)

      Is that on average this week, there was a double-digit GOP edge in returned ballots. The gap is already closer to 4000 votes.

    •  Actually, (7+ / 0-)

      the first reports on the early absentee vote had it at 42/39 R/D, which DKE as well as many media outlets, surprisingly, reported as bad news for Jolly. Then it tightened even more to 42/40, and now it's back to 42/39, where it's been for most of the week.
      https://www.votepinellas.com/...

      So I don't see where the good news for Jolly is in these numbers.

      Incidentally, we're still up in the early, non-absentee ballots, though the absolute vote totals are still small: 44/41 D with close to 3k votes logged.

    •  Your turnout story about 2012 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, KingofSpades

      isn't right. Just go to the Pinellas county website you can see all the turn out data. Since this year the early vote time / procedure might be more restrictive, and more would be early voters are probably requesting mail ballots, it is useful to combine the mail + early vote, and compare with the election day turnout.

      2012: within Mail + early vote
                D 37.2%, R 40.9%, or R advantage of 3.7%
      for election day
                D 33.2%, R 40.3%, or R advantage of 7.1%
      The election day turnout was definitely more conservative. The overall turnout is D 35.7% vs R 40.7%, (R 5% advantage), resulting an Obama win of 1.5%.

      This election so far mail + early vote
                D 38.9%, R 42.2%, or R advantage of 3.3%
      That is, the turnout is compatible to the 2012 general, except as being a special election, the unaligned voters will be less likely to turn out. If the election day turnout being roughly the same relative size and R advantage, you would expect a Sink win by around 2%. A high single digit win is probably out of the realm of reality now.

      However, some doubtful polls put Jolly at 7% ahead in the not-yet-voted folks (not the voters' pool being 7% more R). That is probably putting the final right on the tipping point.

      •  Thanks for backing up the data (0+ / 0-)

        Our better ground game  and spending edge will likely give us the victory at the end of the night. And national Republicans are trolling Jolly for a reason.
        Actually, they counted very fast in the primary.

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