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View Diary: The Crimean Conflict is a Global Crisis (254 comments)

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  •  It's going to be a Global ECONOMIC crisis if... (3+ / 0-)
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    OllieGarkey, Mogolori, northsylvania

    the US and EU decide to employ the muscular sanctions that Ollie calls for above. The energy markets are global. Even now as we prepare to go to bed, energy traders are bidding up the price of oil and gas. Obama has to tread a fine line here. He's rattling sabers and sending sternly worded letters sending energy prices higher while Merkel stands aside refusing to even join in the sternly worded letters let alone sanctions because Germany powers it's heavy industry on f***ing Russian gas. Meanwhile,"Britain is preparing to rule out trade sanctions against Russia amid fears that the Ukraine crisis could derail the global economic recovery." Quoting Zero Hedge:

    Perhaps it is the fear of a massive liquidity suck out from London's real estate market (or its banking system) that has the Brits on edge. We suspect Germany will be close behind as they eye exploding gas and oil prices and their dependence on Russia's marginal production.
    There are no alternative sources of energy on the immediate horizon for Europe. It would take years to develop new energy sources and years more to build new pipelines even if the sources could be identified tomorrow. Production from Norway and Scotland is decreasing and fracking in England is only theoretical right now. Where the hell is Germany supposed to get the gas to run it's heavy industry for the next 4-5 years minimum while replacement sources, if they even exist, come on line? Merkel knows that any reduction in gas flow to Germany will result in recession. That's why she isn't even sending Putin a sternly worded letter. She's letting Obama do that because she knows Russia is holding all the (gas) cards.

    So while Europe will soon be temporarily free from fear of freezing to death thanks to the coming spring and summer, it has much more to worry about, namely a major recession, and no amount of extra blankets is going to help.  Who here thinks that Obama and Merkel are willing to gamble world-wide recession for the sake of keeping Crimea within Ukraine, because I want to take the opposite position from you in all your trades.

    •  Good response. (3+ / 0-)
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      KJG52, northsylvania, Yasuragi

      If we leave oil and gas alone, and move on other imports and exports, that might give enough push, though.

      Russian stocks took a major shock. If we start talking about asset freezes, we can still damage the russian economy. Maybe even enough to force a withdrawal.

      This is part of why I said that I don't think any of this is likely to happen.

      An Fhirinn an aghaidh an t'Saoghail. (The truth against the world.) Is treasa tuath na tighearna. (The common people are mightier than the lords.)

      by OllieGarkey on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:58:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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