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View Diary: With Friends Like This... (288 comments)

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  •  Hi Ray! (1+ / 0-)
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    My reference to a binary choice concerned what I perceived as an "is it or isn't it?" framing of the question of whether or not the US was "meddling in their internal affairs" and "engaging in a destabilization campaign". My comment agreed with you on the existence of US influences on current Ukrainian affairs, and then brought up an issue that I don't feel has been clearly covered - what was the extent of the US influence, what actions were taken - how significant is it as a factor?

    To answer your questions,
    1-I believe that anyone involved in Ukrainian politics (including the US) is well-aware that Russia is a powerful neighbor with significant interests and assets in play. Those participating in Euromaidan were primarily protesting against increased Russian influence in Ukrainian politics. I can't speak specifically to your "certain steps" unless you specify them.

    2-Yes, a military response by Russia to protect their assets in Crimea and other areas of influence in Ukraine was a possibility. That's been communicated pretty clearly in articles I've read since the beginning of the protests. I'd consider it general knowledge.

    3-At this point, pretty much what we're seeing - speeches about how unacceptable Russia's actions are, talks of threats, and negotiations with the Ukraine, Russia, EU, UN, and so on to try to stabilize the situation. No military action by the US or EU, even if Russia tries to take "their" half of the Ukraine (which I consider unlikely). If there's a drawn-out combat with significant casualties, escalating threats of air support.

    But I think Russia's a lot smarter than that - they would definitely win a large-scale invasion of the Ukraine, but it would be expensive and destabilizing for them. Russia's in a position now where they can negotiate a good outcome for them in Crimea, and retain their key influences over the Ukraine - they've lost Yanukovych, but they still have trade and political influence.

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