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View Diary: Support for marriage equality just keeps growing, no matter what foes believe (52 comments)

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    •  Didn't die soon enough (still alive in 2004) (7+ / 0-)

      Bush owes winning re-election in 2004 in huge part because the vast majority of public opinion had not yet begun shifting - support for "civil unions" rather than full marriage equality was still the majority position even among relatively progressive voters.  Rove's GOP operatives capitalized on the Massachussetts Supreme Court ruling (the first upholding marriage equality on state equal protection grounds), and likely won Ohio with it (in conjunction with some possible electoral shennanigans).

      The enormity of the shift in just a decade can easily be seen by how immensely weaker a wedge issue marriage equality is (the term wasn't even in wide use a decade ago, except among hard-core GLBT activists).  At most, it provides some added increment of motivation for the hard-core social conservative portion of the GOP base to turn out, and might also help turn out a shrinking portion of the type of alleged "independent" who is nonetheless  likely to vote GOP if they bother to turn out.

      Shift the weight of public opinion forward a decade in the 2004 election, and we likely would have had President Kerry instead of Bush's second term, and Obama would still be the junior Senator from Illinois.

      •  I mean, among progressive voters, civil unions... (0+ / 0-)

        ...were still the majority position in 2004 rather than full marriage equality.  I'm not sure what the percentages were among the full electorate, but though I suspect more people supported CUs than opposed, those opposed were far more strongly motivated on the issue, and GLBT activists were rapidly shifting to pushing for ME rather than settling for CUs.  

      •  To be honest, W really screwed over (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        the gay community for added insurance for his own reelection, but an honest look back at the data says it was likely he would have been reelected at the time anyway.

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