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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Good news on HIV, and Chris Christie is still toast (130 comments)

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  •  you don't understand the dynamics (10+ / 0-)

    Rs don't like christie. he hugged Obama, and besides, he's a northesterner.

    They'd hold their nose for hi because he could win in a bipartisan way and attract Democrats.

    Except he can't. Gone forever, along with his WH ambition.

    Pretending Christie has a shot is pretending Susan G Koman is what it was.

    "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

    by Greg Dworkin on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 05:02:36 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Republicans nominated Mitt Romney, the real (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Greg Dworkin, Floande, TerryDarc

      father of Obamacare and a slippery fork-tongued weasel besides.

      I never believed that would happen.
      I won't rule Christie out this early, if only because that leaves Rand Paul the  front runner.

      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

      by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 05:13:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  in pundit world (4+ / 0-)

        "anything can happen" means "cover my butt by not having an opinion because I can't afford to be wrong".

        "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

        by Greg Dworkin on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 05:24:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not in pundit world. I can afford to be wrong. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SueDe, Stude Dude, skohayes, Greg Dworkin

          The truth is that I think you are all wrong to rule out Christie this early.  A lot depends on what happens with all of those investigations.

          Again, I will be more impressed if he's looking bad a year from now.  

          And, just as I was in 2012, albeit in vain, I have trouble believing that Christie is the best the GOP can do.  I would rate Jeb Bush higher than Christie.  Who knows? If the economy continues without wind in its sails, or international tensions flare up the right way, maybe the country will forgive the last name.  Jeb is less like W and more like dad without being so out of  touch.  Toss in Mexican wife and up-and-coming handsome Spanish-speaking half-latino son, and you've got a unique proposition on the GOP side.

          Still -- Bush.  It's a hard sell.

          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

          by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 05:47:04 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Bush is too moderate (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dinotrac

            But we said that about Romney too. I think it will be between Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum.

            Your beliefs don't make you a better person. Your behavior does.

            by skohayes on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:43:32 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  They will pick a moderate (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dinotrac, skohayes

              There are too many conservatives to split that part of the ticket in the primaries. If Christie is basically a non-factor then Bush is the only moderate left with any name recognition.

              •  There's still time for somebody to jump up, (0+ / 0-)

                but -- hard to think of somebody charismatic enough to overcome current anonymity.  Events happen, though. Who'd ever heard of Wendy Davis before she staged her campaign filibuster?

                LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:12:20 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I had, at least (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  dinotrac

                  In 2011 she filibustered a bill that cut $4 billion from the education budget.
                  It may be because I live about 50 miles from Texas, so I follow their politics more closely, but there were diaries here about it.

                  Your beliefs don't make you a better person. Your behavior does.

                  by skohayes on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:50:18 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Another Bush? *blech* (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TerryDarc

            This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

            by Ellid on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:42:07 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  well spelled out in new ABC WaPo poll (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Dretutz

            Poll finds Republicans resistant to Chris Christie presidential candidacy echoing what I wrote before.

            three in 10 of all Republicans say they would not vote for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie if he ran for the White House.
            You can't win with that.

            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

            by Greg Dworkin on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:25:30 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hmmm. Let's see...Republicans are about (0+ / 0-)

              20% of the electorate. 30% of 20% would be about 6% of the electorate.

              Yeah. That's fatal.

              LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

              by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:31:01 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  your math is off (0+ / 0-)

                Romney got 93% of Rs who were 32% of the electorate in 2012.  He lost.  

                Obama got 92% of Ds but they were 38% of the electorate. He won.

                Christie can't win with 70% of Rs unless he gets Ds. That was his schtick, but it's gone now, forever.

                http://www.cnn.com/...

                "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                by Greg Dworkin on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:38:26 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Number of Republicans has continued downward. (0+ / 0-)

                  Might have rebounded some, but last number I saw was about 20%.

                  You, however, are making my argument: Unpopularity among Republicans is not a problem. In fact, popularity among Republicans might be a huge problem as it probably accompanies unpopularity with everybody else.

                  Unpopularity among independent voters IS a problem.

                  LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                  by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:59:23 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  to an extent (0+ / 0-)

                    O lost them but won the election. However, a Dor R needs 85-90% of their tribe to win.  A third of Rs rejecting Christie dooms him. no way he can win. Can't happen. Toast.

                    "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                    by Greg Dworkin on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 01:22:10 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Even if that were the case, a third today is (0+ / 0-)

                      not a problem.

                      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                      by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 01:38:58 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I won't have a chance to show you the error (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        dinotrac

                        of your ways for a while ;-)

                        "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                        by Greg Dworkin on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 03:06:07 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Convenient, ain't it? ;0) (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Greg Dworkin

                          To tell you the truth, I don't really feel Chris Christie as the candidate anyway. But, you remember how much I absolutely and completely refused to believe that Mitt Romney would get the nom last time.

                          I'm still waiting to wake up and discover that it's still 2011 and the whole thing is just getting underway.

                          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                          by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 03:21:09 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  more data (0+ / 0-)
                            According to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, 31 percent of Republicans want Mr. Christie to run for president, compared with 41 percent who do not.
                            if he's electable, he's hiding it pretty well.

                            http://www.nytimes.com/...

                            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                            by Greg Dworkin on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 04:30:17 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I wonder what Romney's numbers were at this point (0+ / 0-)

                            in 2010.

                            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                            by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 04:58:08 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  sep 2010 (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            dinotrac
                            While former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin commands the national spotlight, turning out tea party activists and headlining rallies, for now it's Romney who claims the lead at 25 percent, months before an official field takes shape. Palin, GOP nominee John McCain's 2008 running mate, took second with 18 percent.

                            Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee tied for third place with 16 percent. Finishing out the pack were Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty with 6 percent, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels with 4 percent and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour with 2 percent.

                            http://www.mcclatchydc.com/...

                            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                            by Greg Dworkin on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:16:03 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  there's really no comparable numbers (0+ / 0-)

                            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                            by Greg Dworkin on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:20:23 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I seem to recall Romney being an acquired taste, (0+ / 0-)

                            hanging in, hanging tough, and letting others be the flavor of the day.

                            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                            by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:54:46 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  definitely last man standing (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            dinotrac

                            but he didn't do as much to offend the GOP base as Christie has.

                            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                            by Greg Dworkin on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 06:08:57 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Obamacare. (0+ / 0-)

                            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                            by dinotrac on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 07:33:45 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  obviously Rs didn't hold it against him (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            dinotrac

                            you'd think they would have.

                            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                            by Greg Dworkin on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 01:28:48 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  It's one reason why I ignore all this "base will (0+ / 0-)

                            never but it" crap WRT Christie.  Romney was more liberal than Christie by a country mile.  Hell, he was governor of Massachusetts!

                            I know he said a few appeasing things, but did anybody anywhere believe him?

                            If somebody looks able to win in 2016, Republicans will find a way to get behind him or her. If HRC really does run (another chance for me to be wrong -- I don't think she'll be the Dem candidate), that will be even more true.

                            That last would be ironic, btw, because HRC, history aside, should be more acceptable to conservatives than just about any other Democrat I can think of.

                            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                            by dinotrac on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 03:16:51 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  don't misunderstand (0+ / 0-)

                            voting is tribal. Most rally around nominee, some don't. But see McCain v Obama

                            http://www.cnn.com/...

                            McCain got 90% of Rs, O got 89. That year O won with indies.

                            In 2012, O won despite losing indies 50-45.

                            http://www.cnn.com/...

                            What's left of the R base is very conservative, esp. in primaries. And remember, there are more indies but they don't vote as heavily. Last 2 elections were D-R-I 39-32-29

                            However when a third of your base reject you, some of them declare themselves indies or don't vote.

                            The only way Rs win (they are a smaller tribe) is to rally their base and win indies as well.  Very difficult to do both.

                            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                            by Greg Dworkin on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 04:16:26 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  2008 was like 2016 is likely to be: no incumbent (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Greg Dworkin

                            and an administration finishing out a weary 8 years.

                            We were damned well good and tired of both Bush and Republicans by 2008.  If things don't change in some fundamental and visible way, we will be damned well good and tired of Democrats in 2016, especially if you guys front a "same old-same old" candidate.

                            A big economic bounce could work wonders -- probably the reason George H.W. Bush was able to win election in 1988 to mark the one and only time since FDR that the same party has held the White House for three straight terms.

                            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                            by dinotrac on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:54:16 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  indeed (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            dinotrac

                            it is, was, and has been the economy, stupid.

                            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                            by Greg Dworkin on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:58:48 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

      •  Romney won (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wintergreen8694, Ellid

        because he had more money than anyone.
        I predict Ted Cruz will win Iowa, Rand will win NH, and then Santorum will take the southern states.
        Should be a fun (if very short) GOP primary.

        Your beliefs don't make you a better person. Your behavior does.

        by skohayes on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:42:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Who takes Florida (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dinotrac, wintergreen8694, skohayes

          Thats the key. Florida is the first big population state. Its also relatively moderate, with a diverse population. The winner of Florida has become the nominee in all 7 of the competitive primaries in the post-1968 primary era).

        •  He won because he had enough money to keep (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ellid, skohayes

          going while everybody else went poof.

          You don't need the most. You need enough.

          Well....let me moderate that.

          If you're a Mitt Romney or equally uninspiring candidate, you probably need the most.

          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

          by dinotrac on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:15:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  LOL, how true. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dinotrac, Dretutz

            I'm trying to think who could inspire the moderates to come out and vote in the primaries.
            Jeb Bush is probably The One. He's the only one who hasn't pandered to the far right, but its very early...

            Your beliefs don't make you a better person. Your behavior does.

            by skohayes on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:32:02 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I want more Michele Bachman's, The Donald's... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          skohayes

          ...the Herman Caines of the R-world to run. They were ever so much fun, though Rand Paul promises to liven things up a bit.

          Cruz is just plain evil, the re-incarnation of Joe McCarthy. I would not care to test the American people's fine discernment with him against HRC. If they fucked it up, we'd be likewise effed in extremis.

          What stronger breast-plate than a heart untainted! Thrice is he arm'd, that hath his quarrel just; And he but naked, though lock'd up in steel, Whose conscience with injustice is corrupted. Henry VI Part II Act 3 Scene 2

          by TerryDarc on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:29:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Unfortunately, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TerryDarc

            in  an effort to control the Clown Car aspect of the primary, they've reduced the number of debates and will pick their nominee in late June or early July, instead of late summer like they did in 2012 (primaries will end in May).
            That also means it's more likely that the one with the most money will win again, since they can blanket several states at once with millions.
            I was really looking forward to the debates, too. :(

            Your beliefs don't make you a better person. Your behavior does.

            by skohayes on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:40:49 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  True dat...And not permanently wound one of their (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              skohayes

              chosen fewer clowns. I only saw the R debates b/c of Rachel, but still pretty big-time fun.

              What stronger breast-plate than a heart untainted! Thrice is he arm'd, that hath his quarrel just; And he but naked, though lock'd up in steel, Whose conscience with injustice is corrupted. Henry VI Part II Act 3 Scene 2

              by TerryDarc on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:56:09 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

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