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View Diary: McKinsey Study claims Previously Uninsured up to 27% from 11%...and tells us nothing. (14 comments)

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  •  Well, consider the trend line. (3+ / 0-)

    Let's say that McKinsey was correct about 11% / 27% of exchange QHPs.

    11% was thru 12/28...about 2.2 million. That means about 242,000 people.

    27% is from "mid-February"...call it 2/15. That's out of around 3.6 million, or 972,000 people.

    That means that 730,000 out of the additional 1.4 million who signed up since December would be uninsured, or 52% of everyone who has signed up since then.

    The trend is clear.

    •  I agree. And doesn't it also suggest that we will (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sharon Wraight, Eric Nelson

      have many, many more signing up at the last minute? Maybe even way more than the 7 mil (6 mil) goal.  No one has predicted that most uninsured people would take the fine...not that I have read anyway.  If they don't sign up in droves soon then they will get the fine so I think that it is obvious that we will have millions in the next couple of weeks. I actually think this report is good news in some ways.

      •  I wouldn't count on it. (0+ / 0-)

        Some people will take the fine, of course.

        More likely, however, the problem will be uninsured people who STILL, even after ALL the fuss and bother and debate and screaming and headlines and bla bla bla, both pro- and con-...

        ...who STILL don't know that they need to enroll by 3/31 or face a fine.

        Amazingly, there was a recent study that said that only like 25% of the uninsured population knew about the deadline and the fee. Idiotic, but there you have it.

      •  Even the CBO or HHS projections assumed (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Eric Nelson, Brainwrap, ybruti, annecros

        majority of uninsured would not sign-on for insurance in the first year.

        Just look at the total # of uninsured in Brainwrap's spreadsheet - then deduct two groups of about 7 million, one for Medicaid, one for ACA sign-ups.

        You are still left with many more millions effectively electing to take the fine.

        So, yes, there were predictions of most taking the fine - fewer and fewer in out years as the fine increases.

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