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View Diary: Paul Broun, the Democrats' favorite Republican, is the Republicans' favorite, too (72 comments)

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  •  in a district no Democrat could win. (0+ / 0-)

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:59:42 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Well, the claim above was (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark

      "he hasn't won yet," and I'm not willing to concede no democrat could beat Broun, nor that Dems couldn't cross party lines and support a more reasonable challenger.  One or the other.

      Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

      by Loge on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:03:22 PM PDT

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      •  In John Barrow's district (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blue aardvark

        Obama got 43.6% of the vote in 2012, 43.9% in 2008. In Jack Kingston's district Obama got 43% in 2012, 44.4% in 2008.

        In Broun's Obama got 36.3% in 2012, 38.8% in 2008.

        link.

        Looking at other districts in other states, Mike McIntyre's in NC went 39.9% Obama in 2012 and he retired because he didn't think he could win it again. Nick Rahall's in WV went 42.3% Obama in 2008 but only 32.8% Obama in 2012, and he's in the fight of his life this year. Jim Matheson's went 40.9% Obama in 2008 but only 30.2% Obama in 2012, and he retired.

        Looking at the context, it looks like it's in the range where Democrats just don't win those districts anymore. I think we could beat Broun statewide, but if we can't, we certainly couldn't beat him in a district that looks almost 10 points more Republican than the state of Georgia.

        "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

        by James Allen on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:11:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That tells me (0+ / 0-)

          a fairly liberal President lost to a fairly moderate Republican by 13 points.  I can't say the race wouldn't be tighter with a more conservative democrat running against an insane person, if that person had local credibility and decent financing.  And I did suggest as well the possibility of switching over to support a primary challenge.  There's losing to a Republican and there's losing to Paul Broun, and I knew the numbers before I posted and priced them in, just not as dispositive rationalizations for inaction.   Obviously, taking care of gerrymandering would help.

          Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

          by Loge on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:21:22 PM PDT

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          •  13 points? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            blue aardvark

            Obama lost Broun's district by well over 20 points.

            Broun will be out of congress if he loses this race anyway, but yeah, I think the only other way to get him out would've been a primary.

            "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

            by James Allen on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:32:01 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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