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View Diary: Hillary soars over GOP hopefuls in Iowa poll as Christie's crash gets worse (262 comments)

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  •  We can and will do better than HRC (20+ / 0-)

    And Intrade had HRC at 90%+ in 2007, to win the presidency.

    Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project. www.hamiltonproject.org

    by PatriciaVa on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 09:02:31 AM PDT

    •  I never understood how someone whose... (9+ / 0-)

      ...permanent sig is Centrist Economics and Robert Rubin could be so hostile to Hillary Clinton or Clintonism generally.

      It's not the side effects of the cocaine/I'm thinking that it must be love

      by Rich in PA on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 09:04:52 AM PDT

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    •  Any way to short Intrade? /nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      annieli

      Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
      I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
      —Spike Milligan

      by polecat on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 09:08:59 AM PDT

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    •  fair enough (10+ / 0-)

      but 2007 looks nothing like now. We've never seen a favorite this prohibitive, especially with an incumbent VP available as a potential candidate. Sitting veeps never lose the nomination if they want it and Biden is getting positively CRUSHED.

      •  Sitting veeps never lose the nomination, but they (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        katesmom, Rikon Snow, Odysseus, mconvente

        don't win the Presidency.

        Since Martin Van Buren was elected in 1836, George H.W. Bush is the only sitting Vice President to be elected President.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 09:51:06 AM PDT

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        •  Open seat races (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MadGeorgiaDem, codairem, mconvente

          tend to be competitive. Bush won. Gore "Won" if a true vote count were allowed. Nixon lost by just a hair.  

          •  Competitive maybe, but there's still just that (0+ / 0-)

            one VP -> Pres ascension.

            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

            by dinotrac on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 10:03:01 AM PDT

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            •  the larger point here is that (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              cocinero, ahumbleopinion, Odysseus

              VPs tend to be undeniable presidential nominees if they want it. HRC is destroying Biden, however and he seems to want the top job.  This just shows how strong a frontrunner she would be and how hard it would be for anyone to stop her. Could happen, probably won't.  And the fact that so few sitting VPS have actually won the presidency doesn't mean that they make  poor candidates. For example, anyone other than Gore probably would have run worse. Ditto Nixon in 60.

              •  George HW Bush (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                dinotrac, mconvente

                only won, because the American people wanted to give Ronald Reagan a third term, and couldn't.  Nobody really loved him, though he was, objectively, one of the most effective VP's we have ever had.

                Reagan was the most popular president since Roosevelt.  Bush got Reagan's third term.  In 1992, he had to run on his own merits.  He was so unloved in his own party, many republican conservatives deserted him for Ross Perot.  

                GHWB is the exception that proves the rule:  It's virtually impossible to be elected in the role of sitting VP.  You get all the bad of the previous administration projected on you, and none of the credit for the good.

                That said, if you believe Gore really won, then Nixon probably won also.  But, if he had, it would have been the equivalent of America giving him the war hero Eisenhower's third term.  In the end, Gore lost partly because even Democrats didn't want a Clinton third term.  Now, we're about to make that happen.  Yikes!

                •  I don't accept that Dems didn't want (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  mconvente, k88dad, Shawn87

                  a third WJC term. Polls at the time showed the general electorate would have re-elected Bill had he been eligible to run again.  If Dems didn't want a third "Clinton term" as it were, why did a heavyweight challenger like Bill Bradley fail to win a single primary?

                •  Last sentence made little sense (5+ / 0-)

                  Gore made the mistake of running away from Bill Clinton instead of seeking out his help.  He lost because despite the fact that people really wanted to give Bill Clinton a third term, because he was tone deaf to that truth and didn't "run with it."    Of course there was his less media friendly personality, Nader constantly trumpeting that Gore is just another corporatist stooge and there was not a whiff of difference between the Democratic and Republican party, and so forth, but Gore's failure to understand how immensely popular Bill Clinton was at the time (and hitch his wagon right on that) was probably the largest issue.  

                  •  People might have had some Clinton fatigue, but (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Dr Swig Mcjigger

                    Gore really ran a bad campaign.  He could have run on Clinton success without being Clinton.  Wouldn't surprise me it that's what the country really wanted anyway: all the light and none of the shadows.

                    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                    by dinotrac on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 10:46:37 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Yup. They loved them some Gipper. (0+ / 0-)

                  Didn't hurt that the Democratic Party Cigar chompers were so afraid of Jesse Jackson that they laid the way clear for a less-than-inspiring Michael DuKakis.

                  I don't believe that Gore won.
                  There is no hard evidence to support it.
                  I believe that the race was effectively a tie, but with a big asterisk:
                  the networks called the state for Gore while the panhandle was still voting.  That would have generated more Bush votes and taking the state to "nearly" a tie.

                  Nixon is the stuff of legend and we'll never know what happened there, but that race was also effectively a tie.

                  LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                  by dinotrac on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 10:45:12 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Wow. I never would have guessed that. (0+ / 0-)

          Thank you for the information.

    •  If she want the nom, she'll get it (5+ / 0-)

      If she runs she already has the endorsements of both Obamas, Dean, all female Democratic Senators (incl. E. Warren, K. Gillibrand, C. McCaskill) in the bag. That in addition to outpolling any named Democrat by at least 60% in all the polls.   You can dislike it all you want, but that is impossible to overcome for any Dem challenger.

      •  If she runs, she will be the Dem nominee (0+ / 0-)

        That, I agree with, unquestioningly.  That is all that is guaranteed.  Don't, for one second, assume those above numbers will hold up in the GE.  The only people tuned into politics right now are hardcore partisans.  Other than GWB (and maybe including him), Hillary Clinton is the most polarizing politician in America - and that includes Obama.  She is even polarizing to Dems!  Witness here.

        She's arrogant, entitled, and prone to hubris.  She's going to be old, and that leads to potential laziness, especially when you're "inevitable".  She's also a woman - and not the easily dismissible, pretty-air-headed type like Sarah Palin.  She's seen on the Right, and even by some conservative Dems, as an "uppity bitch".

        Our society has evolved to where you can't even think, let alone say out loud, some of the slurs that come to mind on the right about blacks or Obama.  Whether they are or not, nobody wants to confirm they are a racist.  But, it's perfectly fine for even professional, polite men, and even some women, to say "that girl is such a bitch!" in common conversation.  And, nobody blinks an eye.  She will be subject to slurs and attacks that Obama was spared, because nobody was willing to play the race card.

        Hillary may well get to the White House.  The GOP has no viable front-runner, right now.  But, the road will be torturously hard.  The right will make her pay for every step up Pennsylvania Avenue with blood and tears.  Will it be worth it, especially at her age, with her health issues,  and with her life accomplishments?  I doubt it.  Why does she need that?  So she and Bill can take a pay cut?  That's why I would still bet she won't run.

        •  Definitely worth it. 100%. (3+ / 0-)

          For all the venom you direct at her, I think she thinks of herself first and foremost as a servant to the American people.  That is why she'll be running and take that massive pay cut.   I have no doubt about it.  

          Let the right call her names, it will just backfire on them.  Don't be skittish, have some backbone.  It is high time to break that glass ceiling, and she is the person to do it.  

          What you witness "here" is in no way representative of the Democratic party, that is where you are dead wrong.  We have NEVER, EVER seen any candidate poll as amazingly high as she has polled against any Democratic potential, and that includes the sitting VP, by definition the obvious "next in line" and usual shoe-in for the nomination.   Instead of polarizing for the Democratic base (except for a tiny but vocal "deep minority") she is anything but, quite the opposite, actually.  She is supported strongly across all Democratic party ideologies, which we don't see all that often.  

    •  Wow P-Va ... predictable slam in record time (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mconvente
    •  What this says is there is a consistent 35-39% (0+ / 0-)

      group of RW nutjobs in the USA. They are augmented by another 9-13% group of perhaps more traditional Republican voters, to give the GOP a seeming 47-49% national popular vote. Just have to make sure the secondary GOP voters do not increase, as the 35/39 group are beyond convinciing

      "...stories of past courage can define that ingredient..... But they cannot supply courage itself. For this each man must look into his own soul." JFK Profiles in Courage "

      by ontario on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 02:20:00 PM PDT

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