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View Diary: The Crimea Election (41 comments)

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  •  It could be close, if the polling is accurate. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FG, wu ming, Pluto

    February had the secessionists losing by a few points... Closer than I would have thought - although that was before the movement picked up speed, and with the Mejlis boycotting the vote, who knows.  

    The ballot is really weird, though.  One of the choices is reunification with Russia, of course, but the other choice lists both status quo for Crimea's place in Ukraine and restoration of the 1992 constitution, which... Nobody seems to know quite what that means.  So you can't just vote against secession without voting for the 92 constitution: it's like a partisan push poll, but with global consequences.  

    I think the secessionists have drummed up enough support to push this through, unless the presence of Russian troops scares the undecided vote.

    The bigger question is how Ukraine and Russia will react to the vote, not to mention their allies.

    Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

    by pico on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 11:26:59 PM PDT

    •  Here's a very good set of interviews (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      with Russians in Crimea who are afraid of what the referendum will mean for them and their families.  Obviously this is not how the majority of Russians in Crimea feel, but they're still a very worthwhile read (in Russian, but browser translation will get most of it.)

      Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

      by pico on Sun Mar 16, 2014 at 01:06:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The vote won't be close. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      It probably won't be 99 percent in favor of joining Russia, because Russia will want to have a number that at least "looks" quasi-legitimate.

      More likely you will see a number selected somewhere in the 70-75 percent range.  Maybe they bump it to just inside of the 80s.

      •  It's possible. (6+ / 0-)

        Not only are there a lot of people boycotting, but the referendum's so written to bring out its supporters and depress its opponents.  

        A Russian colleague of mine was sharing, on Facebook, a mock-ballot question:

        Вы не против, чтоб Крым был частью России?
        - Да, я не против.
        - Нет, я не против.

        Are you unopposed to Crimea joining Russia?
        - Yes, I'm not opposed.
        - No, I'm not opposed.


        Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

        by pico on Sun Mar 16, 2014 at 01:16:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  With respect to the "No" option . . . (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      another American

      as explained by the Guardian:

      This second option is somewhat contradictory: the 1992 constitution asserts Crimea is an independent state and not part of Ukraine (reference to autonomy within Ukraine was inserted at a later date). So by "supporting the restoration of the 1992 constitution" voters will actually support enhanced autonomy. No matter what, voters are ticking a box for independence from Ukraine.
      So in a sense, either way the vote goes, it's a vote for breaking away and joining the Russian Federation.  The "yes" option makes the union option explicit -- maybe not in legal terms, but in quasi-legal terms.   The "no" option is functionally the same thing, but as far as the optics go, it at least gives the Crimean government the appearance of independence from Russia.  Obviously, in fact that wouldn't be the case.

      Yet another sign that the whole process is a joke.

    •  But do the Russians in Crimea really want to (0+ / 0-)

      be under Putin, since he seems to want to return Russia to a more Iron Curtain type of freedom.

      Yes there are demonstrators, but what do the not demonstrating Russians actually want.

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