Skip to main content

View Diary: Putin sings to Crimea, 'You're back in the USSR, you don't know how lucky you are, boys' (300 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  short term, yes (5+ / 0-)

    obviously, Russia can annex its former territory and no one (other than the Ukrainians) can do anything to stop it. Just as the United States could annex Mexico.

    But why bother when the short term gain is so low and the potential for long term pain is so high?

    The stability of Russia's economy is entirely dependent on its position as a member in good standing of the global community.

    Yes, much of eastern Europe is dependent on Russian energy exports. But all those countries will now look to other sources. And, lo, the United States is looking to become a massive NG exporter.

    Russia's actions in Crimea have guaranteed that their exports to Europe have already peaked and now will start to decline.

    What happens to Russia's economy then? And if the energy money dries up, Putin's position in Russia becomes much less stable.

    •  We'll see (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mconvente, ArthurPoet, native

      You've outlined a scenario I've read recently on another site.  I am skeptical, however.  It might be how it SHOULD happen, but I guess I am in a "wait and see" mode on it.  

      If you are right about the increase in NG exports from the U.S., this would seem good for us rather than bad.  I know the environmental concerns with regard to mining the gas, so maybe your "lo" remark is due to that.  

      In any case, If I was a betting person, I would not bet that there will be a decline in Russia's exports on much of anything because of this.

      •  not arguing for a decline (0+ / 0-)

        and yes, this crisis is very good for the United States in a lot of ways. Not just for opening new markets to US exports.

        By invading Crimea, Putin has justified every action the United States has ever taken to expand NATO.

        Europe is now grappling with the fact that they can no longer trust Russia to bargain in good faith on anything.

        Putin's power (and Russia's economy) depend on steadily increasing energy exports.

    •  I don't think so. (3+ / 0-)

      Exporting LNG to east Europe is not feasible, for a variety of reasons. A detailed analysis of this is provided in an excellent diary by ManfromMiddletown:

      http://www.dailykos.com/...

      •  short term, yes (0+ / 0-)

        a lot of the argument there is that we can't export NG right now.

        And that is true. And that is the reason why Germany, especially, is staying pretty quiet.

        But in 10 years, if Russia maintains its belligerence with the west, will that still be true?

        If Germany and the rest of eastern Europe start diversifying away from Russian NG, that will negatively impact Russia's economy.

        There's an enormous difference between Russia's energy profits increasing year-after-year and Russia's profits stagnating for a decade.

        •  A lot of ifs there. And ten years (0+ / 0-)

          is well beyond the scope of this particular crisis.

        •  I'd suggest reading the link ed diary (0+ / 0-)

          In ten years we will still not be able to replace their natural gas. Certainly a switch to renewables would do the trick, but in that time frame Russia can start selling to China and get the infrastructure necessary for that up and running.

          If knowledge is power and power corrupts, does that mean that knowledge corrupts?

          by AoT on Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 01:14:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I read the diary, silly (0+ / 0-)

            we can't offset all of Europe's dependence on Russian gas. But Russia needs exports to grow. A lot. If exports to Europe don't grow because Europe's needs are met by other sources, that's trouble.

            And yes, Russia can export to China, but China will never pay what Europe will pay. Which is the reason they aren't currently exporting gas to China.

            Right now, Europe needs Russia as much as Russia needs Europe. But Europe controls that balance.

            •  China won't pay it now (0+ / 0-)

              But they have been getting richer and richer.

              Right now, Europe needs Russia as much as Russia needs Europe. But Europe controls that balance.
              Russia gets no necessities that I know of from Europe. Given that Russia's population has been shrinking rather than growing even economic growth doesn't seem necessary. It wouldn't be great for Russia, but it would be far more devastating for Europe, especially if Russia decided to pull the plug quickly.

              Russia's reliance on Europe is vastly overstated imho. Too many people are buying into the neoliberal "free trade is inevitable and irreversible" line in this case.

              If knowledge is power and power corrupts, does that mean that knowledge corrupts?

              by AoT on Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 01:55:30 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  money, my man, money (0+ / 0-)

                Russia needs Europe's money.

                Russia cannot turn off the spigot.

                And China's largesse is in no way guaranteed. There's a lot of cracks in that centrally managed economy.

                •  What for? (0+ / 0-)

                  They can certainly use Europe's money, but most of that goes to the Oligarchs.

                  And let's not forget that no government's are seriously talking about cutting petrol imports at this point except possibly the US. The governments all targeted individuals with their sanctions, which will be annoying to some people, but nothing serious.

                  And under-estimating China is foolish. The US government is pushing through the KXL pipeline to send them shale oil at more expensive prices than the US would pay for it, so I don't see why they'd pay less for NG.

                  If knowledge is power and power corrupts, does that mean that knowledge corrupts?

                  by AoT on Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 02:59:20 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  what does Russia need money for? (0+ / 0-)

                    Hmmmm...

                    •  They don't need imports (0+ / 0-)

                      It's not what they need money in general for, it's what they need foreign money for.

                      What do they need to import that necessitates exports?

                      If knowledge is power and power corrupts, does that mean that knowledge corrupts?

                      by AoT on Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 03:40:37 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site