Skip to main content

View Diary: By hiring a climate disinformer, Nate Silver undermines his entire premise of data-driven journalism (204 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Silver is a noodge, (6+ / 0-)

    proven by his televised appearance on ABC, complete with animated drawing on a whiteboard, where he gave the GOP a 60% chance of taking the Senate.

    Hellooooooo, Nate darling.  It's March, ya goomba, and the election isn't till November.

    Nate Silver--a "numbers kind of guy", only the numbers he's offering now are those cooked a la Rasmussen.

    “When it comes to this, I shall prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty—to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.” —Abraham Lincoln

    by Pragmatus on Sun Mar 23, 2014 at 12:25:17 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Wow!!!!! 16 months ago, he was the king. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mrick, political mutt, Matt Z

      New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

      by AlexDrew on Sun Mar 23, 2014 at 12:44:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ... (6+ / 0-)

      If the election were held today you disagree that at best we have a coin flip chance to win?  And most likely we are behind.  This is a bad cycle for us... Off year, too many seats to defend.  At this point in time, I'd guess hes pretty accurate on the prediction... You're treating it like his prediction is static.  

      Seriously, just a dumb comment altogether.

      •  Not disputing his outlook on November (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Risen Tree, llywrch, Just Bob, duhban

        The map makes it difficult to be sure. But he is opening himself up to people doubting everything he says by giving a forum to someone like this.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Sun Mar 23, 2014 at 01:22:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Are you really not able to separate this from (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          shenderson, Matt Z

          his election analysis? He is not right wing. He was on Dkos for crying out loud!!!!

          New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

          by AlexDrew on Sun Mar 23, 2014 at 01:30:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  it's not seperate (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            k9disc

            reputation drives a lot of what you do in a field such as what Nate has chosen. Most of his 'fame' came from his ability to do statistical analysis in a dispassionate fashion. This completely undermines that though it's not a huge surprise. I read Nate's book and was disgusted by his chapter on climate. It was the exact opposite of the work I expected from him.

            Der Weg ist das Ziel

            by duhban on Sun Mar 23, 2014 at 07:42:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That doesn't translate to his election predictions (0+ / 0-)

              being wrong.

              New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

              by AlexDrew on Mon Mar 24, 2014 at 03:18:43 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  The data changes in 7 months (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Back In Blue, Matt Z, sethtriggs

       If you read Silver's piece in FiveThirtyEight, his prediction on the Senate is largely based on generic items such as the partisan lean of the states, and fundraising numbers. But there isn't much data on the actual matchups themselves (most primaries haven't happened), and many people aren't paying much attention right now other than political junkies.

         As November gets closer, the data used will be more refined and the model will change. The difference is that Silver will change the output as the inputs change (unlike the pro-GOP Beltway and right-wing bubble-world), and I have confidence that as this happens, you'll see the Dems move into the lead in the model, as well as in real life.

         Don't fret this too much, other than to cut off the "2014 will be a GOP year" meme that many in the media want to say. That's not reality, and you should work to stop any bandwagon effect from happening that might happen because of this BS.  
         

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site