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View Diary: By hiring a climate disinformer, Nate Silver undermines his entire premise of data-driven journalism (204 comments)

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  •  not science (2+ / 0-)
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    peregrine kate, mightymouse

    What 538 is closer to what was done in the time before we had modern science.  Make some observations, run some numbers, try to guess what might happen, thinking that being mostly correct is good enough.  Statistics and science grew up together, but science is about underlying physical models that consistently explain the world, while statistics merely worry about percentages, and is tolerant to widely incorrect conclusions.  For instance 538 gets many things incorrect, but it is forgiven because it is not held up to the same standards as science.

    I am not surprised that Silver got this wrong, because in his world everything is possible.  In the next presidential election, anyone could win, and, over time, his techniques will determine who is most likely to win.  This is not true in science.  Everything is not possible.  We cannot just take a survey and decide that climate change is 70% not human related.

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