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View Diary: By hiring a climate disinformer, Nate Silver undermines his entire premise of data-driven journalism (204 comments)

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  •  The data changes in 7 months (3+ / 0-)
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    Back In Blue, Matt Z, sethtriggs

     If you read Silver's piece in FiveThirtyEight, his prediction on the Senate is largely based on generic items such as the partisan lean of the states, and fundraising numbers. But there isn't much data on the actual matchups themselves (most primaries haven't happened), and many people aren't paying much attention right now other than political junkies.

       As November gets closer, the data used will be more refined and the model will change. The difference is that Silver will change the output as the inputs change (unlike the pro-GOP Beltway and right-wing bubble-world), and I have confidence that as this happens, you'll see the Dems move into the lead in the model, as well as in real life.

       Don't fret this too much, other than to cut off the "2014 will be a GOP year" meme that many in the media want to say. That's not reality, and you should work to stop any bandwagon effect from happening that might happen because of this BS.  

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