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View Diary: Guardian's NASA climate story false, flawed & misleading (69 comments)

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  •  The Newton's laws analogy (6+ / 0-)

    isn't very good. The global climate models are highly nonlinear with tons of variables. Even though the fundamental physical processes (heat flow, motion, chemistry) are well-understood, their interactions are hard to model and hard to study, especially over the timescales involved. It's like weather - although you might have a general idea one week in advance that it ought to warm up, the details are hard. In this case, although we have a clear case that climate change is happening and that the consequences will be bad (the fact that there is such overwhelming scientific agreement, even though the problem is really hard, is enough evidence for me!), we cannot predict many of the details with certainty.

    And this study didn't just claim to model climate with eight equations - it claimed to model humanity with eight equations. That's way too simple. If you could do this, social science would be easy, and it's not.

    (Also, Newton's laws are objectively not the full picture of what's going on in the universe. Ask Einstein!)

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