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View Diary: The "Ten City" Strategy (13 comments)

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  •  The main point is quite inspiring (2+ / 0-)
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    AoT, wdrath
    The cities where we need a special effort to turn out that vote include (but is not necessarily limited to): Charlotte & Raleigh in NC, Little Rock, in AR, New Orleans, LA, Anchorage, AK, Louisville, KY, Detroit, MI, Charleston, WV, Atlanta, GA and Denver, CO.
    Firstly, you get the gears churning in my head: I live in a safely blue state but I have family in Colorado.  Perhaps I can arrange some way to help out with the ground game.

    Secondly, there has been some the numbers that Nate Silver has provided has provided about the upcoming Senate races.  Having done some of my own data churning, I would offer up my numbers for purposes of discussion:

        Using Silver's numbers, I estimate a 34% chance of the GOP taking over the Senate.

        Using Silver's numbers, but adjusting the probability of winning in Colorado from 60% to 80%, I estimate a 27% chance of the GOP taking over.

    Which is a pretty big jump.  The usual caveats apply: Silver could be way off in his odds, I might have botched the analysis, a great deal will change before the election.

    But the central point remains: we have good to believe that an intelligent strategy of turning out our base in the cities will have a significant effect on the outcome.

    o caminho d'ouro, uma pinga de mel: Parati

    by tarkangi on Mon Mar 24, 2014 at 03:25:58 PM PDT

    •  Based on the numbers Colorado (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tarkangi, wdrath

      won't need much help. They're pretty blue at this point. I think focusing on Texas could get some stuff done. Houston and San Antonio perhaps.

      If knowledge is power and power corrupts, does that mean that knowledge corrupts?

      by AoT on Mon Mar 24, 2014 at 03:52:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  maybe we could (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AoT

        substitute another city for Denver (such as Miami)

        •  I think the first step is to figure out (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wdrath, Odysseus

          where the party is putting resources and then have the netroots work in a different place. That's why I keep suggesting Houston. Miami might be a good plan as well, although it's pretty conservative, I'd expect we want to hit the places who's demographics support us more.

          If knowledge is power and power corrupts, does that mean that knowledge corrupts?

          by AoT on Mon Mar 24, 2014 at 04:09:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I am learning to write more clearly (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AoT, wdrath, Odysseus

        Every time I get criticized, I get better.

        My focus was on Denver only because I have a personal connection to the place.

        My intended point was that simply making the one modest improvement, in one state, translated into a real improvement in our odds of holding the Senate.  I never intended to suggest that we should put all of our eggs into the Colorado basket.

        The real point is that we can work the odds in every single battleground state through an intelligent GOTV campaign, and that understanding how the numbers work can be a useful guide to allocating resources.

        ***  BREAK ***

        To your specific point about Texas, Silver assigns it a 98% chance of going for Cornyn.  My gut instinct was that a twenty point shift in the probability for Texas would have a (much) smaller shift in the overall probability of holding the Senate - but the model I am using suggests that the effect should be about the same size.  

        This gives me lots of food for thought.  Thank you.

        o caminho d'ouro, uma pinga de mel: Parati

        by tarkangi on Mon Mar 24, 2014 at 04:25:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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