Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/2 (277 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  yeah but against unknowns she is polling pretty (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    terribly. That should have some bearing on how we judge the state of race right? I would think she should be able to pull away more votes against Tillis, but clearly she has a lower floor than I expected.

    •  This will be a tough race (5+ / 0-)

      but I think there is a chance that Hagan gains more support no matter the GOP challenger.

      No one in this field strikes me as a very strong. And their fundraising hasnt been great. Add to that, the fact that there will likely be a runoff. So it's likely a GOP candidate will come out of the primary with little money and having moved significantly to the right.

    •  Fewer people are aware of the Republicans (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JacobNC, The Caped Composer

      But name recognition works both ways. Her shot is by making them unacceptable when people learn more. Remember Akin being tied with McCaskill?

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:11:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think what I'm reflecting on more is her floor. (0+ / 0-)

        These are awful approval ratings (although I know they have fluctuated a lot) and polling against nobodies at 43%, suggests the climb to victory is steeper than the normal purplish state....and steeper than I previously thought.

        •  The poll is basically what PPP are finding (0+ / 0-)

          SurveyUSA had McCaskill at 40% in August 2012. Most pollsters had her at 42-44% for most of the year.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:23:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Approval ratings for members of Congress (0+ / 0-)

          For the time being, they're not all that useful. People are just very VERY down on Congress and anyone associated with it (and why not). I suspect there are a fair number of voters who would say they're unhappy with a fairly anonymous, new figure like Hagan, but still vote for her. The assumption has always been that if you're an incumbent, you get very few votes from people who are dissatisfied with your performance. I don't believe that's true these days, at least not as much.

          •  Especially since she is already (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            Doing 5-7 points better than the number of people who approve.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:43:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  "Remember Akin?" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        clevelandpacha

        is never something that makes me more confident about a race.  I'm worried about Hagan, more so than Begich at this point.  At least against Tillis.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:43:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Tester (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          44, 44, 48, 43, 47, 43, 45, 45, 40, 45.

          That is his percentage for every public poll in 2012 until the middle of October. Not drastically different to Hagan today.

          There are no guarentees but Akin is far from the only example that shows a path.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:59:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Tester had a Libertarian in the race who did (0+ / 0-)

            quite well.  

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:14:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder if the undecideds lean... (0+ / 0-)

      Democrat or Republican.  This could either be our floor, or it could be the Republicans' ceiling...

    •  Given how repusive those "unknowns" are (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo

      I'm inclined to believe the voters will only dislike her eventual challenger once they learn more about that person.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site