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View Diary: The Obamacare counting doesn't end at 7 million (42 comments)

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  •  However, Clawson's statement is anecdotal (0+ / 0-)

    It is not very effective against GOP claims that the numbers don't tell the real story (too few young people, too many ACA signups by those who already had insurance).

    We are still light on information that sells that real change is happening.

    West. No further west. All sea. --Robert Grenier

    by Nicolas Fouquet on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:07:59 AM PDT

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    •  I see your point (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Nicolas Fouquet, Cordyc

      but as a January 1, 2014 recipient of healthcare coverage after not having it since 1998, I am not that concerned about Republican claims.

      We have enough information to know that this law is a game changer. Hospitals and health insurers and the stock market will start telling the tale of increased numbers and it will drown out those who want to dismiss the administrations claims.

      The youth/healthy subjects mix is a non-issue thanks to the way the law was written.

      Federal officials have set an informal target of 40% of enrollments in the 18-34 age range. The latest figures from various states put the enrollment rate at the mid-20% level. But it was always expected that younger people would be among the last to enroll, and reports from the states suggest that's happening.

      Even if the statistics remain fixed in the mid-20s, however, the death spiral won't be happening. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimated that even if the young enrolled at only 50% of expected levels, premiums for 2015 would have to be raised a couple of percentage points. That's nowhere near enough to set off a death spiral.

      Moreover, as we explained way back in October, the ACA has a corrective to the death spiral written in. It's called risk adjustment, and it works by paying a subsidy to insurance companies that end up with older or sicker customer bases than they anticipated. The money comes from payments made by carriers that end up with favorable customer profiles. Republicans know this arrangement will keep Obamacare stable. How do we know? Because in a majestically cynical move spearheaded by Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., they tried late last year to kill it, calling it an insurance "bailout."

      "I am not interested in picking up crumbs of compassion thrown from the table of someone who considers himself my master. I want the full menu of rights." (From "You Said a Mouthful" by Bishop Desmond Tutu - South African bishop & activist, b.1931)

      by FiredUpInCA on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:39:43 AM PDT

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      •  Good stuff (1+ / 0-)
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        But the GOP is providing a rationale for the uninformed to keep doubting the ACA for now.  They'll either be proven correct, or it will all come crashing down around them.  

        I am fascinated by how the GOP has left no room for ACA success - like Karl Rove on election night in 2012.  Unlike that failure though, this one puts the fundamentals of GOP philosophy at significant risk.

        I do recall the Kaiser study and it was and is reassuring.  The key number will be, as seems to be in Kentucky, the number of uninsured in the U.S. going down at a rate in the range of what is being implied in the sign up numbers.  The GOP counterarguments will become harder to maintain with those numbers.

        I can't wait for them to come out.  Hurry up, WH.

        West. No further west. All sea. --Robert Grenier

        by Nicolas Fouquet on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:28:52 AM PDT

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        •  It shouldn't be just uninsured (1+ / 0-)
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          since many folks were under insured with the pre ACA policies.

          My plan is much more comprehensive and cheaper to boot!

          Congressional elections have consequences!

          by Cordyc on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:07:16 AM PDT

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