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View Diary: New Push By Russian Separatists In Ukraine (133 comments)

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  •  It seems like that Ukraine will be partitioned. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Richard Lyon, AoT

    Putin may have decided that an outright annexation is too risky at this point, and so we'll see declarations of independent pro-Russian are was that will be client states of Russia until the dust settles and no one cares whether or not Russia annexes them. Obv speculation on my part, but that strategy seems most likely.

    While you dream of Utopia, we're here on Earth, getting things done.

    by GoGoGoEverton on Mon Apr 07, 2014 at 08:03:54 AM PDT

    •  It seems to be functionally partitioned (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Involuntary Exile, limpidglass

      already. The government in Kiev is not in control of the eastern area for practical purposes.

      •  there is no functional government in Kiev (8+ / 0-)

        there is a cadre of unelected technocrats installed in order to impose IMF austerity, backed by--but now apparently also at war with!--the fascist militias who ousted the previous elected government and who now have control of the nation's security forces.

        No matter how many state dinners in the WH Obama invites Yatsenyuk to, it won't make him any more legitimate in the eyes of the ones whose good opinion matters: those Ukrainians who lean towards Russia and/or are pissed at the manner of Yanukovych's removal.

        It's not clear that the government in Kiev has control of anything beyond Kiev. Just like the president of Afghanistan is, on a good day, not much more than the mayor of Kabul.

        This is just going to get worse, more fragmentation and more separatism. A decentralized Ukraine, with greater regional autonomy, seems the way to avoid civil war. Yes, it benefits the Russians who can then snap up the pieces they'd want to have.

        On the other hand, there doesn't seem to be any way to hold the country together short of a military occupation. Putin is too smart to do that (nor does he have any reason to--why should he try to seize what will come to him of its own accord?) and Obama might like to do it but it would be horribly unpopular in America and publicly embarrass the EU and so he'll be reluctant to do it, especially after his call to hit Syria went over like a lead balloon. Two such embarrassments in a year would be a bit much for him.

        "In America, the law is king." --Thomas Paine

        by limpidglass on Mon Apr 07, 2014 at 08:52:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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