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View Diary: Ukraine: It's Complicated (96 comments)

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  •  The Ukranian government has to crackdown (1+ / 0-)
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    They've been ineffective, and virtually invisible, in the face of Russian opposition so far, and watched Crimea get annexed, because it was what the people there wanted. For the most part, the world collectively sighed, because there was no street to street violence.

    However, to prevent the Russians from annexing any more territory, the Ukrainians have to provide a show of force to show the Russians, and the rest of the world, that future land grabs won't be sanitized and surgical little operations.

    It ain't pretty, but that's geopolitics for you.

    This revolution is not scheduled!

    by harrylimelives on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 07:45:33 AM PDT

    •  That can of course backfire (1+ / 0-)
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      if it stirs the ethnic Russians to fight back.

      •  I think that's going to happen anyway (1+ / 0-)
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        Both sides are itching for a bloodletting.

        The reality is, if Texas suddenly seceded from the Union tomorrow, the Democrats would have a permanent majority in the House and the Senate. I think Kiev is happy to see ethnic Russians go, because they can't vote anymore, so it helps them consolidate their grip on power.

        I'm of the opinion that Kiev knows that the Russians will probably annex more territory in the near term, so they're getting aggressive now to be able draw more favorable lines for themselves, and not lose natural resources they may want to keep.

        This revolution is not scheduled!

        by harrylimelives on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:11:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Crackdown how? With what troops? (1+ / 0-)
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      Richard Lyon

      What proportion of Ukraine's army would remain loyal to the interim government, in a largely pro-Russian environment? Would they dare to use their new Right Sektor militias?

    •  Russia is NOT going to annex eastern Ukraine (0+ / 0-)

      There is absolutely no geopolitical advantage in doing so.

      The best scenario is for Europe and Russia to work together with the Ukraine - something the US dominated west and the putsch government in Kiev so far refuse to do despite overtures by Putin. Kiev seems more flexible at this point so this may explain why Biden and the CIA are visiting (to stiffen Yats backbone).

      •  Or "intimidated" or "incompetent" or "subverted" (1+ / 0-)
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        Lord knows we saw plenty of incompetence or intimidation in southern Nevada this weekend when a gathering of militias drove away the Federal government.  

        Ukraine had a terrible choice to make in late February:  to fire the Berkut or to not fire them.  To not fire them would be seen as an injustice of the type we see all too often in the United States after cops beat protestors.  So Ukraine fired them.  

        Unfortunately, a bunch of unemployed men with keys to the armory are never good for stability.  Chiang Kai-Shek found out when he demobilized his army after WWII.  The United States found this out when it dismissed Iraq's army.  

        For some reason, it's very hard to imagine a mere 20 special operations officers able to take over the central HQ of a police organization "serving" cities of 100,000+.  They had to have help from the inside.  Cops may have been afraid of getting the Berkut treatment from Kiev, or they may have wanted new bosses who looked the other way as they took bribes or roughed up suspects.  

        "Politics should be the part-time profession of every citizen who would protect the rights and privileges of free people and who would preserve what is good and fruitful in our national heritage." -- Lucille Ball

        by Yamaneko2 on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 03:30:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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