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View Diary: Ukraine: It's Complicated (96 comments)

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  •  Maybe NATO is not an imperial (2+ / 0-)
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    Tony Situ, amyzex

    scheme.  Maybe that's just you and Russian propaganda.

    The people who most inform the decisions in Berlin, Brussels, Paris, London, and DC are elites.  Most of whom grew up and entered their professions during the Cold War and have been to Russia since, and are (in my experience) mostly very intelligent people.  Consider the possibility that they may be wiser than yourself in the long term.

    If you consider seriously what it takes to carve down a backwards empire in the present day, you'll end up at a scheme that looks like NATO/EU and the series of nationalist uprisings and kleptocracy/secret police state collapses that we've seen for 25 years in eastern Europe.

    Like many people, you're unable to come up with a legitimation for Russian imperialism.  Instead, we're asked to respect people who might nuke us when their insanity level gets high enough.  And you suggest no way to defuse these peoples' animus, perhaps because they don't actually care whether our gestures are nasty or nice- losing portions of their empire is enough to rouse them to hatred and a willingness to engage in violence.  So maybe there is no way for us to appease them at all other than let them have what is not theirs, and even that will not let them make peace with us.

    Consider the endgame.  Moldova went over the EU's side in 2011.  Western Ukraine, if not more of it, this year.  Belarus is nearing bankrupcy and at least 40% of its people want to go over to the EU as well already- in the next five to ten years there may well be a Belarusian Maidan.  In 2020 Moscow may well be looking at EU/NATO aspirants and affiliates along all of its western border, from the Arctic to the Black Seas.  And the attitude it will face from Brussels is 'you know, our planning number for when you give up your antagonism and decide to join us rather than try to beat us is 2045.'

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