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View Diary: Is Marine Le Pen a Fascist and a Fraud? French Courts Say “Oui!” (34 comments)

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  •  I'd like to show you some details. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sponson, poco

    I mentioned the relative strength of the Left and the FN one time:

    In 2012, both were candidates in the presidential election. She came in third. He came in fourth.
    Yes, that means the fn had more votes. Here's the tally:
    Candidate Votes Percentage
    Francois Hollande 10,273,582 28.6%
    Nicolas Sarkozy 9,753,844 27.2%
    Marine Le Pen 6,421,773 17.9%
    Jean-Luc Melenchon 3,985,298 11.1%
    Francois Bayrou 3,275,349 9.1%
    Eva Joly 828,451 2.3%
    Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 644,086 1.8%
    Philippe Poutou 411,178 1.1%
    Nathalie Arthaud 202,562 0.6%
    Jacques Cheminade 89,572 0.2%
    Total 35,885,695 100.0%
    Le Pen had 61% more votes than Mélenchon, not double.
    The totals don't reflect proportionately in the Assemblée Nationale where the FN has 3 seats while the Left has 15.

    The candidate with the highest total in the first round doesn't always win. Two days before the recent municipals The Guardian said: French far-right Front National party on brink of power in Avignon The FN led in the first round but the Socialists won in the run-off. Avignon is in Vaucluse, the FN's stronghold, and this was the year of the FN surge, but control of this important regional city shifted from the center-right to the center-left.

    I don't expect readers to take my word. That's why I included the France24 video. Two of the speakers explain the surge was more media-hype than actual results.

    The poll you cited is for the European Parliament, not the French national government. In this election, the number of EuroParl seats may reflect proportionately.

    Some French voters have decided to send the FN to Brussels based on its party platform which includes withdrawal from the EU. The results won't live up to the poll. As the video explains, the FN has a real problem finding credible candidates. It needs 75 for this election. There's still a stigma attached to the FN and it really scrapes the bottom of the barrel just to get a name on the ballot in some locations. While 24% of the public favors an anonymous FN candidate, when voters see who the candidate is, they run screaming sometimes. If the FN gets 18% it will be consistent with its high water mark. Detailed polling shows that the FN has the highest negatives of all the parties by a wide margin. That means voters won't accept it as a second choice if their own candidate doesn't make it to the runoff.

    The leaders of all four major parties have low approval ratings. Way lower than Obama's for example. That's why the Socialists still won in Paris and in 6 of the top 10 cities, and 10 of the top 20 cities. The competition sucks as much as they do. Mélenchon is holding these marches frequently and the crowds are building. He gets criticism for verbal gaffes and he caucuses with the French Communists. He's pro-labor, steadfast on the social safety net, favors fiscal revolution, and he articulates better than anyone why an economy based on an excess of cheap goods, made with cheap labor, is a race to the bottom, and isn't sustainable in any way.

    •  The FN - (0+ / 0-)

      Can still have the highest negatives and get the highest percentage of the EP vote. And I do know the difference between voting for the Assemblée Nationale and the Euro Parliament.

      Jobbik has topped 20% in Hungary - even with Fidesz getting 66%, too. True Finns almost got 20% in 2011.  Golden Dawn is polling at around 10%.

      Meanwhile, parties of the center left are basically useless and working-class left parties are in decline. The Italian Communist Party was the leading exponent of a real left alternative in the 1980s and it has evaporated.

      I support most of Mélenchon's platform, but until the issues that are motivating large numbers of displaced working people are honestly addressed by the left, then Marine Le Pen will continue to gain adherents among people who, until recently, voted left.

      I repeat - you cannot wish the FN away.

      •  That's why I research and use fact-based analysis. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        marsanges

        In France, some people are wondering if the media exaggerated the surge because it wanted to support the FN by making it seem bigger than it is. Media bias in its favor would be cause for more concern, not less, by the way.

        I've written about the FN before. A respected Kossack who is always on the Rec List and who is knowledgeable about France once commented that the FN isn't as crazy as the tea party. I don't think I'm overstating or understating the danger. It's something to watch and write about which is what I intend to do.

        •  Gotta Laugh - (0+ / 0-)

          Folks who used "fact-based" - -

          •  English is a funny language. How should I say that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            poco

            I meant to give readers fact, not fiction.  This isn't a rox/sux piece. It's information not an opinion/editorial. It's not controversial to Democrats but rightwingers would probably see I'm not writing to please them.

            Still I sense that I managed to write something here that bothers you, or angered you. Maybe the reference to Le Pen's visit to Russia.  

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