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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Karl Rove's new polls have positive trendlines ... for Democrats (14 comments)

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  •  Agree. These numbers are awful for Dems (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auapplemac

    I read Kos whistling through the graveyard yesterday, and laughed.  Everybody here is excited about a bunch of incumbent Dems, with 35% approval ratings, trailing their (as yet un-nominated) GOP opponents by a few points in April.

    Four of these seats are already GONE, unless the GOP candidate murdochs himself.  WV, SD, Ark, and Montana.  These seats are as much fools gold for Dems this election, as PA is for republicans in presidential elections.  It doesn't matter what the polls say, the GOP voters will turnout in these states, and the GOP candidate will win.  I also think NC is gone, as well.  That means the GOP needs one more seat to control the Senate.

    Dems are also kidding themselves in GA and KY, where the general belief, even among some of the Dem voters, is that voting for Dems is kind of icky.  That alone will help McConnell survive and also keep the GA seat red.  Dems should focus on the four races that will determine that sixth GOP pick-up:  Alaska, LA, CO, and MI.  They need to win them all.  Of these, I think AK and CO are the easiest to hold.  

    MI, like WI, is just a way more conservative state at everything but the presidential level, than Dems are willing to admit, and Landrieu now appears more vulnerable than ever.  That said, MI is still a blue state, and Landrieu is a skilled campaigner that seems to have nine lives.        

    As for trends, notice that the Dem candidate isn't above 45% in any of these polls?  And, other than Udall, they're barely above 40%.  That is terrible for an incumbent, as undecideds typically break for the challenger, especially if that challenger is a republican in a red state!  Rove only released these polls (which are probably even engineered to make the GOP uncomfortable) to gin up GOP donor money.  My guess is that it will work, and make matters worse for these Dems.

    Finally, these midterms almost always turn on the popularity of the president and the economy.  The economy is still considered to be bad by conventional wisdom, and Obama typically sees his lowest popularity during the summer months.  My guess is that by September, we'll be seeing polls that make most people here want to borrow some redneck's gun and shoot themselves.

    •  Troll alert n/t (2+ / 1-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat, stevenaxelrod
      Hidden by:
      auapplemac
      •  Why is a negative analysis troll worthy? I think (0+ / 0-)

        the diary is overly optimistic - especially the title.

        It’s the Supreme Court, stupid! Followed by: It's always the Supreme Court! Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive.

        by auapplemac on Fri Apr 18, 2014 at 10:46:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Someone's trigger happy (0+ / 0-)

          It's trollworthy because it's the definition of concern trolling. If David's post is overly optimistic, rmp's is fear-mongering on an apocalyptic level. I do not consider myself an optimist by any means, but that post was ridiculous for a number of reasons:

          1. Saying Arkansas is gone this early is ridiculous. The state is clearly conservative but its ancestral Democratic heritage is stronger than that of Alabama, Mississippi, etc. Yes, we got cleaned in 2010 but that's because a) it was 2010 b) Blanche Lincoln was a terrible candidate c) two of our congressman retired, leaving open seats. Mike Beebe and Mike Ross easily won reelection which proves that popular Dems are still competitive, even in terrible years. It should be noted that Mark Pryor is far more popular than Lincoln, hails from a highly respected political family, and is running in a far better political environment than in 2010. I think the political environment will get better as people realize Obamacare is actually good. To ignore the positive polling trends is also ridiculous.

          2. Saying NC is equally demented, if not more so. In case rmp hasn't noticed, the Republican candidates are absolutely atrocious. The strongest candidate, Thom Tillis, is speaker of an incredibly unpopular state assembly and has made questionable decisions in the past (mishandling his staffers' affairs with lobbyists). He might not even be the nominee considering his anemic numbers and his wackball opposition in the GOP primary would be even less competitive. Not to mention North Carolina's less Republican than it used to be, albeit slightly right-leaning.

          3. It makes me laugh when he talks about how states like MI and WI are more Republican than you'd think considering their presidential election histories. The exact same can be said for state like Arkansas, North Carolina, and especially Kentucky where Dems have dominated on the statewide level recently.

          4. It bears repeating that this is 2014, not 2010. Our main political liability thus far has been Obamacare. The narrative on Obamacare has clearly shifted and while it might not be wildly popular by November, it will not become less popular and should become marginally more popular. The economy is not as potent a deterrent as it was four years ago because we're no longer in the doldrums of recession.

          5. This is a Republican polling firm that has a Rasmussen-esque history. In fact, this might be the Republicans' solution to Rasmussen's post-2010 implosion; they're looking for new vehicles to craft a favorable narrative. It's absurd that rmp cherry picks these numbers while ignoring numbers from more reputable firms.

          I'm not saying 2014 will be like 2008 or even 2012. We'll almost certainly not pick up seats like in those years. But this isn't 2010 when outrage over Obamacare climaxed a flat economy screwed us. At no point in 2010 did we have positive momentum. We clearly have momentum right now; a catalyst has yet to emerge reversing this trend.

          Rmd's a concern troll who deserves our scorn and ridicule, as do those who defend this lame excuse of an analysis.

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