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View Diary: The Real Ukraine Story : There will be Neocon Tears (124 comments)

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  •  As always, it depends on who's holding the mic. (13+ / 0-)

    There are more like five groups jockeying for control in Eastern Ukraine: those who support the current government in Kiev, those who support a unified Ukraine but are opposed to the current government in Kiev, those who support a federated Ukraine with greater autonomy for the eastern regions, those who support independence for the east, and those who support reintegration with Russia.  Even within the leadership of local 'people's republic' groups there are struggles over the last three options: people like Ponomarev are pro-annexation, while Pushilin thinks it's a possibility, but unlikely.  It's a clear minority opinion even in local polls, but Ponomarev has taken an aggressive stance, so he's commanding the news items for the time being. Speaking of Pushilin, he's controlling the upcoming referendum, and said he'd model it on Crimea's (heh).  The only question on the ballot will be on state sovereignty. (English-language stories have tended to translate this as "independence", but the self-determination is closer to what Pushilin is saying.)  That's certainly a more popular option than annexation, but it's a shaky situation right now.

    The most recent poll that most sources are citing comes from Unian, a Kiev-based press agency.  But its numbers are being touted a lot in Russian media, as well.  They found only about 15% support for annexation.  Ties in a bit to what I was saying last week about whether the louder voices are going to push the argument further by sheer will (or by kidnappings, whatever), or whether this is simply an intractable majority that pro-annexation politicians are going to find themselves up against.

    Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

    by pico on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 05:40:18 PM PDT

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