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View Diary: Why you shouldn't worry (too much) about the Republicans' early ad advantage (51 comments)

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  •  Campaign messaging is, in fact, cumulative (1+ / 0-)
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    A good messaging campaign follows a cumulative strategy in the first place.

    So yes, I think joe from Lowell is right.

    I tend to be skeptical of studies like this one by Sides and Vavreck, I don't know that they consider everything comprehensively and holistically, though I think they did better here than most pol sci commentaries do.  These guys in this study at least acknowledged that you have to run ads because unilateral disarmament can kill you.  But they shouldn't have hedged it:  it will kill you.

    Does anyone have any doubt that had OFA and allies not run any ads at all, and Romney and his allies did all the same things they did, that Obama would have lost?  I think only a fool would think he would've won or even run close.  Let's say OFA and allies did the same radio and direct mail that they did, but just jettisoned TV.  I'm still quite confident Obama would've lost.

    I like to point to WI-Sen 2012 as the perfect example of this.  Baldwin was down big vs. Thompson, high single-digits through the summer, but the primary bankrupted Thompson and she went on the air with attack ads that he couldn't challenge (and allies didn't challenge).  She shot up into a big lead, high single-digits, a dramatic shift, in about a month.  That lead eventually shrank but never disappeared after Thompson and allies finally got on the air.  And Baldwin's ads were on Thompson's lobbying and other stuff that was never going to be covered as "news" in free media.  So it was definitely her ads that shifted the race.

    The DSCC and our vulnerable incumbents certainly are hoping that the early GOP allies' money will be wasted.  But that's a hope based on having no options because our side doesn't have the money to match early and still play late.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sat May 03, 2014 at 08:52:21 PM PDT

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