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View Diary: Abbreviated pundit round-up: Gun control, moody America, 'mansplaining', Rex Sinquefield (97 comments)

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  •  It's 2014. Pollsters need something to do with (1+ / 0-)
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    JJ In Illinois

    their time.

    Unless the economy works it's way down to people who have been suffering -- and the last jobs report was good news even if the GDP was terrible, so you never know -- I expect the normal voter fatigue to set in and the Republicans to win the White House in 2016.

    Normally I'd be pretty confident saying that, but these are not normal times, so, in my mind, I'm merely seeing it as more likely than not.  The Republicans have been doing a terrible job these last few years.  The horrible shellacking Democrats suffered in 2010 might actually turn out to be a long-term benefit.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Mon May 05, 2014 at 07:16:16 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Hidden in the last jobs report was (0+ / 0-)

      the fact that 700,000 more people left the workforce.

      Forbes: Jobs Report

      “The part that is a little less positive is this apparently wonderful story on the unemployment rate,” added North. “If you look at the changes in the labor force there are 700,000 more unemployed, in other words the labor force shrunk because more people left.” This is why the unemployment rate should be taken with a grain of salt, he says, and why the Fed has shifted away from quantitative interest rate guidance to qualitative.
      All in all, a good jobs report.  Though, we'll need to see that trend extend for some months ahead:
      Michelle Girard, RBS chief US economist, wrote in a note, “The question is, how much of the April gain is ‘catch-up’ from prior months (when hiring may have been held down by weather) and how much represents a step-up in the pace of hiring that will be sustained in the coming months.
      •  Not the U6. The 288,000 new jobs (1+ / 0-)
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        JJ In Illinois

        More than enough to counter population growth.
        Sustainable?
        Maybe not.
        Maybe so.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Mon May 05, 2014 at 08:43:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've seen graphs comparing Obama's (0+ / 0-)

          unemployment rates to Reagan's.. and looking just at the U-3 rates, it is pretty close.

          But, mainly the way we are reducing U-3 now is reduction of workforce - i.e. people dropping out.  Reagan's recovery added tons of jobs and increased the workforce.

          As Paul Krugman recently wrote:

          Unemployment has fallen a lot recently, but for a peculiar reason: not so much rising employment as a falling share of the population actively looking for work.
          His link to here, has a good graph comparing U-3 and U-6.
          •  Yes. At some point, one hopes that will change. (0+ / 0-)

            Again, if the 288,000 is a real number and not just an adjustment due to the weather, that will be adding new jobs, even if the growth is anemic.

            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

            by dinotrac on Mon May 05, 2014 at 10:40:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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