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View Diary: Is Hater the Best You Can Do? (219 comments)

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  •  I doubt that she isn't going to run (28+ / 0-)

    but I truly wonder how massive the freakout would be if she didn't.

    I'm trying to remember the last time the Democratic Party had this much invested in one outcome, with so very little invested in a plan B.

    I have to be honest. I am one of those people on this site who thinks that, if Hilary is in, the party will clear the decks and she will be the nominee. I also think that her being the second viable historically transformative candidate in a row, as she would be the first woman President of the United States, will make it very hard for a white male Movement Conservative Republican with the anchor of having to pander to the extremism of the GOP base to ride the usual GOP ratfucks and smear campaigns and local cheating via abuse of power to win that race by a hair.

    If everything happens like the script from 'The West Wing' she romps and runs up the score with Congressional coattails that people will be talking about for years.

    But.

    Our politics rarely works like a script from the 'West Wing', or she would've been the nominee in 2008 with a chastened Barack Obama as her VP.

    There are serious and substantive reasons for those not on board the Hilary train not to be on board the Hilary train. I might be dead wrong, and they might be 100% on the money. I have to be open to that possibility.  

    Her 2008 campaign was awful. Tone deaf. She was inevitable... right up until she wasn't.

    Today?  

    She has been saying things that are jarringly out-of-touch, policy notions on the economy and on some of the big issues of the day that are straight from the 1990's era Democratic playbook.

    I would say this: Andrew Cuomo and Hilary Clinton are cut from the same cloth. They would both very likely be putting the same sort of people in charge in their administration. Arne Duncan, for example. I'm sure the same Wall Street and Big Bank Big Money types. Michelle Rhee might be lurking as a dark horse candidate for Secretary of Ed in either White House. The Chained CPI nonsense could pop right back up like Jason Vorhees. The difference between the two is that Andrew Cuomo is the same candidate without the historical transformational significance and without the hypothetical 'I don't care what you say, I'm voting for' factor that will, in theory, flummox the Right and the Village so badly.

    I think you run Scott Walker against Andrew Cuomo, we are looking at President Scott Walker because Cuomo will get his ass kicked.  

    I think Hilary beats him because of the historic change trumping all other factors that usually help the GOP beat Democrats by a hair. The historic achievement trumping any hiccups or faux scandals or Village useful idioting of the race. The bigger than the bullshit factor, along with being bigger than the problem of having a real risk of finding herself with the inability to make the maximum and most effective ideological contrast argument with a Jeb Bush or a Scott Walker.

    The same issues that I think would sink Andrew Cuomo in a 2016 match-up with the fake serious Republicans.

    But I could be dead wrong. Hilary could be just as muggable as Cuomo and I just don't see it coming.  I have to give the people who are not buying in to the conventional wisdom and getting high on the steady supply of polling ages away from the actual race that much respect.

    I could be dead wrong about Hilary getting a halo of get out of fail and get out of being out of touch free card because of her being the transformational candidate.

    Or the economy could shit the bed again, and suddenly Hilary Clinton has the Andrew Cuomo issues against a person that, on paper, this far out, she utterly destroys in a hypothetical wave election of a match-up.

    It's hard for me not to notice how disproportionate the response is to those who sincerely do not like Hilary Clinton, and who sincerely don't want her to be the Democratic nominee and don't want her to be President of the United States. Which is it?

    Outliers or potential threats to the inevitability meme?

    If they are such mouse farts, unsubstantive 'haters', why the sledgehammer approach to putting them down and insisting they are irrelevant and their views are motivated by the painful self-realization of impotence?

    Shit can go sideways.

    I'm going to respectfully disagree, and not dismiss, or bash, or sneer, or insult, because they could be right.

    "Real journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed. Everything else is public relations." -George Orwell

    by LeftHandedMan on Mon May 05, 2014 at 09:47:32 PM PDT

    •  On a personal note (21+ / 0-)

      My heart is with those who are Clinton averse, even if my head is buying the polling hype.

      To be perfectly honest, the Supreme Court is on a razor's edge. Ruth Bader Ginsberg, although I understand her reasons for why she was so adamant about not retiring,  could die suddenly and be replaced with not just a conservative judge, but a Sam Alito or Antonin Scalia.

      If that happens, everything that I hold dear as a non-Movement Conservative American could be wiped away, reset in complete bad faith on an ideological spectrum of what Matt Kibbe thinks to what a Chief Justice Roy Moore thinks of as legal scholarship.

      I'm looking for a win. I have to admit that blind fear of a Scalia Planet is disproportionately effecting, and has been disproportionately effecting, my thinking in the head vs. heart department. That is a failing of mine. Of courage and of conviction. To me, it would be adding insult to injury to sneer at somebody who is being braver than I am intellectually.

      I think 90's era neoliberalism is one of the greatest epic failures in modern American political history, second only to Movement Conservatism in the fail boat.

      I want Elizabeth Warren and not Hilary Clinton.

      But I also want the landslide with coattails.

      I have to be honest with those who feel the way they feel. I honestly think it's a braver and more personally honest stance to be in defiance of the Hilary is Inevitable meme in the face of the hypotheticals of the moment. With all the evidence stacking up, far far out, that it's a good bet to be on that train.

      I have to at least do those who aren't their the courtesy of allowing that they may be right, and right because they took the more true to themselves and intellectual and morally honest position and stuck to it than I did.

      In the inner argument over:

      I want Elizabeth Warren and not Hilary Clinton.

      But I also want the landslide with coattails.

      Expediency and wanting to know it was a sure thing, even if you can't know that until you know it because it is over and done with, won.

       

      "Real journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed. Everything else is public relations." -George Orwell

      by LeftHandedMan on Mon May 05, 2014 at 10:07:23 PM PDT

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    •  I really love your comments, dude. (14+ / 0-)

      Always have. I know I've told you this before. :)

      You've given me a lot to chew on with this comment, as per usual. Thanks for this.

      If I turn into another, dig me up from under what is covering the better part of me. -- Incubus

      by Colorado is the Shiznit on Mon May 05, 2014 at 10:08:51 PM PDT

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    •  My feeling is that we are far enough out that we (18+ / 0-)

      should be able to talk about what we really want in a candidate, and not be laser-focused on just the outcome of the general.  I might even vote for Clinton in the primary on the "who can win the general?" criteria, but even that is years away.  

      To me, going all-in for Clinton now, if it's not where your heart is, is the equivalent of the Dems negotiating from a compromise rather than from their ideal position -- it just lets the Repubs pull the debate and the outcome farther to the right.  

      And I think that insisting on falling in line now, so far ahead of time, is going to create more resistance down the line.  I'm a Democrat, which means I don't like coronations or being given marching orders.  Maybe it would make sense in 2016, but not 2014.

      (I too appreciate your comment.)

      © cai Visit 350.org to join the fight against global warming.

      by cai on Mon May 05, 2014 at 10:17:24 PM PDT

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      •  P.S. -- Also that constituencies that can be taken (11+ / 0-)

        for granted will be.

        As for Markos' poll, there was no "maybe" option, which is what I'd have to honestly answer.  I don't know what I'll do, and my vote is my own business.

        My state is extremely unlikely to go R, so a protest vote wouldn't hurt in re: SCOTUS.  

        I've yet to see any of Clinton's official positions -- which will be, of course, mere hints as to how she'd govern, but I still want to see her policy proposals.

        Finally, what's the point of asking this now?  To try to steer us away from supporting anyone else in the primaries?  To extract some kind of loyalty oath?  Sorry, but even if I were a Clinton fan, neither of those would be palatable to me.

        © cai Visit 350.org to join the fight against global warming.

        by cai on Mon May 05, 2014 at 10:34:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  WIN (5+ / 0-)
        To me, going all-in for Clinton now, if it's not where your heart is, is the equivalent of the Dems negotiating from a compromise rather than from their ideal position -- it just lets the Repubs pull the debate and the outcome farther to the right.

        "The great lie of democracy, its essential paradox, is that democracy is the first to be sacrificed when its security is at risk. Every state is totalitarian at heart; there are no ends to the cruelty it will go to to protect itself." -- Ian McDonald

        by Geenius at Wrok on Tue May 06, 2014 at 07:13:27 AM PDT

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      •  which is a fair point (0+ / 0-)

        and a comment that I doubt the diarist will link is kos telling all those that think he's wrong to go prove it.

        I get what you are saying hence the reccomend. Personally I have no strong feelings here either way and at best I'd reluctantly support Clinton. But kos'  argument about polling is not only right it's incredibly persuasive.

        Like it, accept it, love it or hate it it truly is Clinton's nomination or not at this point.

        Der Weg ist das Ziel

        by duhban on Tue May 06, 2014 at 07:27:34 PM PDT

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    •  On the historical moment point (5+ / 0-)

      last year in NYC Christine Quinn was in line to become both the first woman mayor and first gay/lesbian to hold such a high office in the state.  She was crowned as the inevitable victor and transformational candidate for nearly two years before the election.  She had full press backing, as well as the moneyed interests and Dem machine behind her.  But she lost...and she lost terribly.  She won only 16% of the women's vote and a paltry 20% of the gay/lesbian vote in the primary.  The city's voters overwhelmingly decided that a sea change in the city's affairs was imperative.  

      I think that the nation is in such dire straits that many people will look past the "historical moment" when casting their vote or will refrain from voting altogether.  I do not see much enthusiasm for any Dem candidate who represents business as usual.  

      I enjoyed reading your comment and respect your thoughts.  

    •  I think it would be awesome if she didn't run. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Johnny Q, angel d

      Deep down she's a vindictive person--which to me is a plus in a leader, at least in our current situation--and I'm betting that part of her would like nothing more than to let the Democratic Party sink-or-swim without her.  

      It's not the side effects of the cocaine/I'm thinking that it must be love

      by Rich in PA on Tue May 06, 2014 at 06:34:13 AM PDT

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    •  In what sense will she be (5+ / 0-)

      "historically transformative," other than being a woman in the presidency?

      I can think of one possible answer, but it's not an optimistic one.

      "The great lie of democracy, its essential paradox, is that democracy is the first to be sacrificed when its security is at risk. Every state is totalitarian at heart; there are no ends to the cruelty it will go to to protect itself." -- Ian McDonald

      by Geenius at Wrok on Tue May 06, 2014 at 07:10:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There being a woman in the White House (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Richard Villiers, JayRaye, angel d

        as the President of the United States and not the first lady is a big deal to millions and millions of women who have dreamed of the day they could make that happen. Women, especially single women, are the dragonslayer of the Democratic Party.

        So much so that I don't think it can be overstated as a fundamentally defining factor in a final race.

        Personally, I don't believe that there is any secondary historically transformative factor to a Hilary Clinton Presidency going forward beyond that.

        It's why I put forward the idea that Clinton and Cuomo basically being the same candidate with the same baggage, but Cuomo, at least in my estimation, gets his ass kicked and Hilary doesn't because he doesn't have the trump card of being the first woman President to play and she does.

        I don't see a Hilary vs. Wingnut Whoever as being as much about policy as an Andrew Cuomo vs. Wingnut Whoever race would be.

        Rather than be insulting, I look at history, and the history of liberals being right and the Very Serious being wrong, and I reject being abusive to those who are not buying in. The idea that only, say, 10% of site users said 'hell, no' in a poll of the site members might mean that 90% of the respondents are going to have to apologise for a lot of shit after election day, not that the minority are unserious or dismissible as "haters".

        It's also why a big part of my comment was going out of my way to recognize that I could be wrong, dead wrong, about that difference being something that allows Hilary to overcome the same baggage that sinks, say, a Cuomo.

        "Real journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed. Everything else is public relations." -George Orwell

        by LeftHandedMan on Tue May 06, 2014 at 09:04:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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