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View Diary: America's gun culture is 'way out of balance' Hillary Clinton says (219 comments)

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  •  General rule of thumb (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    That an incumbent having trouble consistently breaking 50% is in trouble. Maybe not fatally, but there is an opening. 7 points against Tancredo is not that impressive. I think if it is Tancredo, he wins and may well win by a larger percentage, but a couple of points the other way, and it's a real race and not impossible for him to lose.

    •  The only way Hick possibly loses is if the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Glen The Plumber, LilithGardener

      national economy tanks in the next 3 months.

      There just aren't any issues that voters are not up to speed on and they know both candidates inside and out.

      If he were in trouble, the polls would have to show a 3-5 pt margin.

      "Looking back over a lifetime, you see that love was the answer to everything." — Ray Bradbury

      by We Shall Overcome on Wed May 07, 2014 at 02:03:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama had trouble consistently breaking 50% (0+ / 0-)

      Even 40% at times.

      Sometimes rules of thumb are more conventional wisdom than actual trend.

      Nobody deserves poverty.

      by nominalize on Thu May 08, 2014 at 09:07:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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