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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/15 (274 comments)

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  •  Fox GCB: Dem+3 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, DCal, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, TofG

    So since last month, the GCB found by Fox News polling (question seven) went from R+3 to D+3. Combined with all the good news we've seen in Obama approval, I wonder if we're seeing the effects of the jobs report. Or perhaps something else is causing it?

    I'm skeptical that it's just noise. We're seeing movement in multiple polling firms in multiple areas (GCB, Obama approval, etc), and they've all been pretty solid bumps. Since we were holding our own in April Senate polling despite a crunch in the GCB/Approval numbers, I'm feeling pretty good now.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

    by Le Champignon on Thu May 15, 2014 at 04:14:41 PM PDT

    •  probably mostly noise (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome, MichaelNY

      I seriously doubt the ballot has shifted 6 points in favor of Dems in a month. Maybe a point or two, in line with Obama's numbers. I could buy that the actual voter pool (as opposed to their sample) was R+1 last month, and even or D+1 this month.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu May 15, 2014 at 04:50:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Noise. (1+ / 0-)
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      Seems highly unlikely you go from R+3 to D+3 in a month with nothing seriously changing.  That would be an unusual swing even for some major news happening.

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Thu May 15, 2014 at 06:04:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd wait until next month's round (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, TofG

      of polling to confirm if it's noise or not.

      It could be a combination of no bad Obamacare stories, + improving economy.

      Ironically, 1Q GDP will likely be revised negative, in large part because of weather, but it looks like job growth has been picking and GDP will bounce back this quarter.

      I read somewhere this year could be the strongest year for job growth since 1999.

      •  Why (0+ / 0-)

        will Q1 be revised to the downside? The advance number was weak to begin with at .01%. I mean, it will almost certainly shift up or down from that number, but I haven't seen anything suggesting that the coming revisions are more likely to be negative than positive.

        •  I thought I read that a few of (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          the GDP trackers had a negative figure. JP Morgan Chase, I think, was one.

          And the reasoning was some of the estimates of trade data and inventories that was used in the advance estimate was higher than the actual data that subsequently came in.

          Maybe that's wrong, or maybe the revision will be positive, after all the revising is done.

          I imagine if the figure is negative, it will get some attention, but it's a backward looking figure at this point. The recent jobs data, and the trend in initial claims, recently, including today's data is pretty positive.

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