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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/15 (274 comments)

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  •  Hmm, okay (2+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY, HoosierD42

    SD – Rounds (R) over Weiland (D) by 20
    MT – Daines (R) over Walsh (D) by 9
    WV – Capito (R) over Tennant (D) by 7
    KY – Grimes (D) over McConnell (R) by 2

    NC – Hagan (D) over Tillis (R) by 2
    AK – Begich (D) over Sullivan (R) by 3
    AR – Pryor (D) over Cotton (R) by 5
    CO – Udall (D) over Gardner (R) by 6
    GA – Handel (R) over Nunn (D) by 7
    MI – Peters (D) over Land (R) by 8
    OR – Merkley (D) over Wehby (R) by 8
    SC(A) – Graham (R) over Hutto (D) by 8
    IA – Braley (D) over Ernst (R) by 9
    MN – Franken (D) over McFadden (R) by 9
    MS – McDaniel (R) over Childers (D) by 10
    NH – Shaheen (D) over Brown (R) by 11
    VA – Warner (D) over Gillespie (R) by 12
    KS – Wolf (R) over Taylor (D) by 13
    LA  - Landrieu (D) over Cassidy (R) by 13
    ME – Collins (R) over Bellows (D) by 14
    NM – Udall (D) over Weh (R) by 16
    SC(B) – Scott (R) over Dickerson (D) by 17
    TX – Cornyn (R) over Alameel (D) by 19
    NJ – Booker (D) over Sabrin (R) by 20
    NE – Sasse (R) over Domina (D) by 21
    MA – Markey (D) over Addivinola (R) by 21
    IL – Durbin (D) over Oberweis (R) by 24
    OK(A) – Inhofe (R) over Silverstein (D) by 25
    TN – Alexander (R) over Adams (D) by 27
    ID – Risch (R) over Mitchell (D) by 29
    OK(B) – Shannon (R) over Johnson (D) by 30
    HI – Schatz (D) over Cavasso (R) by 33
    WY – Enzi (R) over Hardy (D) by 35
    DE – Coons (D) unopposed
    AL – Sessions (R) unopposed

    Basically, I don't think any sort of wave materializes, and I think Democrats put better GOTV operations into gear after the disaster that was 2010.

    I know there are a few wacky numbers in here -- namely Louisiana and South Carolina-A.

    I think Sen. Landrieu wins about 51-52% in November, while Rob Maness bleeds enough of Rep. Cassidy's vote to put him in the high 30s. There won't be enough of an incentive to coalesce behind Cassidy because Republicans will simply hope to pin Landrieu beneath the 50% mark, and I don't think they'll succeed.

    Similarly, I think Sen. Graham wins renomination, but base dissatisfaction bolsters the third-party candidacy of Thomas Ravenel enough to give him a real scare in November. Ultimately, though, I think South Carolina is red enough and Graham is strong enough to pull out a win even if Ravenel cracks double digits.

    If Joe Miller makes an independent bid in Alaska, Dan Sullivan is screwed. Otherwise, I think that election will be pretty close, although I give Sen. Begich the edge.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu May 15, 2014 at 10:55:55 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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