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View Diary: Nate Silver Doesn't Think This Election Is Important. He's Very Wrong. (188 comments)

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  •  i think you could make the argument (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollwatcher, bryduck

    that since it's almost certain to return divided control of the Congress that it's the election least likely to upset the status quo since forever, as even if Dems retain the Senate there's no chance of getting to overcome filibusters on legislation.  but that doesn't make it unimportant for the reasons the diarist laid out.  It does need, however, an extra argument that the consequence of 2 more years of Republican legislative veto points means Obama would be more aggressive at that point in pursuing executive actions, which is the only sense in which i can see it playing out.   Not a perfect substitute in any case.  

    I think Silver's usually pretty good at going beyond unimportant correlations and avoids inferring causation -- it was after all the subject of his book.

    Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

    by Loge on Wed May 14, 2014 at 10:42:00 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  If they control the Senate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mokurai, Garrett

      then the efforts of executive action will be MUCH harder.

      Every time the President issues and executive order, the house and Senate will attach an amendment to a very popular piece of legislation, and he'll be forced to either reverse his action, or piss off a lot of people.

      I'll guarantee this is how it will play out.  The President is going to be forced to make a ton of decisions like, sign into law something that cracks down on NSA spying, and stops all Solar/wind incentives offered by the government.  For 2 years the Republicans will reverse many of the gains of the last 6 by attaching a gazillion amendments to extremely popular pieces of legislation, and many here will blame Obama and the Dems for reversing course.

      You simply can't ignore the powerful, powerful politics that comes from controlling both the house and the Senate.  And you can't deny the willingness of the Republicans to do ANYTHING to regain power.

      (I don't mean "you" personally)

      •  true, but in the scheme of things, (0+ / 0-)

        obnoxious amendments are small relative to the fact any further progress is effectively stymied since the Scott Brown election.  Relatively unimportant isn't the same as totally irrelevant.  

        My point is simply that while the differences between the parties have never been greater, Nate's prediction is sensible if understood as a prediction of likely outcome.

        Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

        by Loge on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:19:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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