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View Diary: Actual predictions: Repub crossroads (10 comments)

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  •  We have precedents for this (3+ / 0-)
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    pucklady, libera nos, DisNoir36

    When the Federalists imploded in 1815, no amount of Big Business money could do anything about it. It took 18 years to cobble together another national Business Party, the Whigs.

    When the Whigs imploded over slavery in the 1850s, no amount of Big Business money could do anything about it. This time, however, a new Northern Business Party, the Republicans, reformed almost immediately around the slavery issue. Business considered slavery unfair competition, and objected to the South's determination to manufacturing out of its territory (a major reason why the South lost the Civil War). Of course, once the slaves were freed, Business decided that free labor, which then started to organize, was unfair competition.

    The line of Republicans from Lincoln to Eisenhower went extinct in the great realignment known as the Southern Strategy, first tried out disastrously by Barry Goldwater. But Nixon pulled it together, and big business turned decisively to supporting racism, bigotry, misogyny, and the rest of the hatreds of the Useful Idiots who were willing to vote against taxation, regulation, and labor rights in exchange for support of oppression.

    Now the coalition of the haters is coming undone, both because their children and grandchildren are falling away, and because of demographic shifts across the country. At the same time, unlike in previous Republican crises, the Tea Parties will not allow anybody new to be recruited to the cause.

    The haters are getting louder, nastier, and crazier as their numbers shrink and as they gradually throw out any remaining moderates wherever they can, and constantly redefine moderation so that Eric Cantor failed their test dismally. The noise will continue, but at some point we will be able to ignore it.

    Democrats will take the House again, and will have the opportunity to outlaw gerrymanders and voter suppression in a new, SCOTUS-proof Voting Rights Act with a new preclearance mechanism.

    At that point, Democrats can pass nearly everything that the public is already in favor of, but that Republicans have blocked for decades. When we get to replace Scalia and Kennedy, the oldest Justices on the Supreme Court, we can accomplish oven more than that, including campaign finance reform.

    It will not matter whether Republicans repent of their folly at that point. Big money will have to find some other set of lies to tell some other set of Useless Idiots in order to get back into politics. They can have the Third Way and other corporatist Democrats for starters. When they get to be the new extreme Right and can no longer pretend to be the compromise middle, I wonder what will happen to them.

    Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

    by Mokurai on Fri Jun 13, 2014 at 09:37:57 AM PDT

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    •  Brilliant comment (0+ / 0-)

      I wish I could tweet comments. Put it into a diary and I will.

      Yes, DailyKos DOES have puzzles! Visit us here Saturday nights @ 5:00 PDT (easier puzzles) and Sunday nights @ 5:00 PDT (more challenging) for a group solving. Even if you just pop in and comment while watching the fun, everybody is welcome. uid:21352

      by pucklady on Fri Jun 13, 2014 at 09:56:27 AM PDT

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    •  I share your optimism (1+ / 0-)
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      I think that this is the end of the conservative cycle and no amount of money will stop it from happening.  

      First starting with the courts.  8 years of Obama even with all the obstruction has allowed all the federalist society wackjobs to grow 8 years older.  Another 8 years under Clinton will all but wipe out most of those judges appointed under Reagan and daddy Bush.  That means the 5-4 conservative majority in the SCOTUS will be a 6-3 minority after Scalia and Kennedy retire.  Thomas won't be too far behind and with his BFF Scalia calling it quits he'll likely leave as well.  As for the lower courts they're all shedding their dead weight and those conservative judges are all getting replaced by more left leaning ones.  The Conservatives and business community will no longer be able to turn to activist courts to rule in their favor.  That means recent rulings on things like the VRA, Citizens United and so on will all be overturned.  

      If the Dems hold their own in 2014 in the Senate they're all but poised to have a veto proof majority after 2016 when there are 8-11 seats the Dems can flip depending on GOP retirements or tea bag lunacy.  Momentum will be with Dems in 2016.  States like FL, IL, IN, NH, NC, OH, PA and  WI can all be competitive if Dems land good recruits.  Additional states like AZ, IA, KY can be put in play if the GOP in those states retire due to age or run for presidency.  With 60+ senators the Dems can do just about anything they want in the Senate and the GOP can't do jack shit.  If the Dems get well above 60 then that will shield them from 2018 which will be a far more difficult election for them.  Regardless, it would take a monumental wave in 2018 and 2020 for the GOP to even come close to majority status again in the Senate if the Dems clean the GOP clock in 2016.  

      As for the House, the GOP guaranteed their majority with the extreme gerrymanders in PA, OH, MI, WI, TX, VA, NC and FL.  But they spread themselves thin in doing so.  PA for example has 2 districts which are D+28 and D+38 while there are SEVEN districts which are R+6 or better.  That means the Dems are all but safe while those 7 GOP reps can at any point be overtaken provided the Dems have good recruits, a wave election or some scandal.   Demographic trends will soon overtake them in many districts.  The haters are growing old and dying while the new young voters are far more liberal in their views and more accepting of diversity.  If Dems manage to regain the majority in 2014 or 2016 and hold it til 2020 at least, those gerry manders will very likely be somewhat reversed.  They certainly can't get any more gerrymandered.  PA for example could go from being a 5D-13R split to something more like 8D-8R for a net gain of 6 seats.  That means that whatever advantage the GOP got this decade, it'll be wiped out next decade all but guaranteeing the Dems will have a better chance of gaining more seats and having the majority for the next decade.  

      Finally GOP governors will be exposed for the frauds they are when citizens of their states look next door and see people in Kentucky getting free or cheap healthcare.  People in Wisconsin will wonder why Minnesota, their sister state, is so much better off.   People in Kansas will wonder why their schools suck so much and why their economy is in the shitter while neighboring states are so much better.  WI, OH, MI, TX, KS, PA, NJ, AZ, FL, GA, IN, LA, ME and NC will all be confronted with a choice of sticking with the GOP or trying for something different and maybe better.  As many as half of those states will have a Dem gov this time next year and most of the rest will likely flip in 4 years.  States which expanded Medicaid and provide health insurance to their citizens will reap the rewards of a better economy with happier and healthier citizens and those living in states that did not will be increasingly eying their neighbors and wondering whether they should stay and die or go elsewhere and live.  Businesses will be doing the same.  People in CA, CT, WA, OR and so on will all be earning more money in the future and living better lives with more economic stability and freedom while those in red states will continue to suffer in poverty.  At some point though the disparity will be so great that market forces (the irony) will compel people to migrate from red states to blue states.

      Between these things it will be that much easier for Dems to pass more meaningful legislation on voting rights and campaign finance reform for example.  An expansion of voting rights will ensure better elections for Dems.   Immigration reform will guarantee Hispanic loyalty for a generation or more.  Minimum wage increases, stronger labor laws, strengthening Social Security and Medicare will all lead to better elections for Dems and a weakening of the power of the 1%.  As Mokurai said, big money will have to find another way to corrupt politics.  By then the GOP will be a rump party overcome by their extremism.  Eventually the Dems will overreach and the GOP or some other party will come roaring back but it'll be a long time before that happens.  Call me an optimist or call em someone who believes in cycles and sees this 40 years of conservative rule about to end with 40 years of progressive rule just beginning.  It happened 80+/- years ago.  NO reason it won't happen again.    

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Fri Jun 13, 2014 at 03:08:57 PM PDT

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