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View Diary: Iran's Qods in Baghdad. Then tanks vs. pickup trucks. Greater Syria and a Shi'ia Crescent ?? (62 comments)

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  •  I don't doubt it (2+ / 0-)
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    ahumbleopinion, waterstreet2013

    I wouldn't be surprised if Iran or Saudi Arabia or whoever got into it, I mean even more than they already are.

    Time for the US to just back out and wait until the dust settles, and the blood dries.

    This Rover crossed over.. Willie Nelson, written by Dorothy Fields

    by Karl Rover on Thu Jun 19, 2014 at 08:37:45 PM PDT

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    •  "Time for the US to just back out" sounds right. (1+ / 0-)
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      Thankfully Obama did back out earlier and there's no SOFA to cover having an XXX number of troops in harm's way to trigger yet another stupid war.

      I think in KISS terms:

      -- It's not our part of the world.

      -- The Saudis are stupid when it comes to power politics. They let their psychopaths finance mass murder against Shi'ia residents of Iraq, just for openers, along with the gawd-awful bandits in Syria.

      -- Israel is crazy-paranoid when it comes to power politics. They have been blinded by the nukes, which is not what matters.

      -- Iran has a first-rate officer corps. They've studied Clausewitz and all the commentaries and the modern field manuals. They are pursuing power politics competently and patiently.

      Guess who wins ???

      "Stealing kids' lunch money makes them strong and independent." -- after Paul "False Prophet" Ryan

      by waterstreet2013 on Fri Jun 20, 2014 at 06:15:49 AM PDT

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      •  Israel and Saudi have much more limited goals (4+ / 0-)

        Saudi Arabia's only real goal is internal stability.  They could care less how messed up the neighborhood is so long as it's the neighborhood that's messed up and not their own house.  Their bet is that all the unemployable military-age males who want to make trouble are going to go towards the explosions and screaming in Syria and Iraq, not towards the Saudis, their money, and their car collection of a military.  So far it's worked.

        Israel in many ways thinks the same.  The focus of all Israeli policy is not regional hegemony but Israel itself.  This is partly by necessity; while their toys are almost as shiny as ours, they have a small population, low birthrate, no strategic depth, a very low tolerance for casualties, and are probably the only people in the Middle East who could unite the Arab/Muslim world.   That's not what imperial oppressors are made of.

        Neither of these countries has a bigger goal the way Iran does.  They're too introverted and too weak in many important ways to have designs on the broader Middle East.

        On the other hand, Iran is historically one of the two real powers in the Middle East, along with Turkey.  They have a very large population (i.e. lots of bodies to throw at their enemies), powerful sense of themselves as a nation (unlike most other peoples in the area), the Shia martyr complex which can translate well into sheer aggression and courage under fire, and unlike the oil countries of the Gulf (Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE) that fund Sunni fighters, they have a real economy and lot of home-grown talent.  Like China they see themselves as simply reclaiming their proper place.

        Domestic politics is the continuation of civil war by other means.

        by Visceral on Fri Jun 20, 2014 at 09:19:21 AM PDT

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        •  Bingo !! (1+ / 0-)
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          "The Shia martyr complex," as noted, has been pumped up as a prime element of religious training.

          Beat yourself bloody with little whips is an annual ritual. And I thought that SEC football fans were over the top....

          I give them a century to integrate Iraq into their main system, overcome the Arabic/Farsi Persian language barrier, then roll down south taking over Kuwait and KSA.

          Saddam was bxllshxt compared to these guys.

          "The Saudis... and their car collection of a military" is pretty much dead on. Between all that oil and trucks replacing camels and KSA's "Royal Family," the Sunnis look to be done.

          "Stealing kids' lunch money makes them strong and independent." -- after Paul "False Prophet" Ryan

          by waterstreet2013 on Sat Jun 21, 2014 at 06:51:56 AM PDT

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