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View Diary: Renegade New York Democrats claim they'll return to the fold, but watch your wallet (86 comments)

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  •  Repubs may get a majority anyway (1+ / 0-)
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    Darth Stateworker

    Even if the IDC does return to the fold, it will be VERY difficult to keep the Republicans from getting a majority, and here is why:

    Two of the 33 Dems in the NY Senate barely won last time around. Terry Gipson won SD-41 with 44% as a right wing third party candidate punishing the Republican for his pro-same-sex marriage vote got 15,000 more votes than Gipson's margin. And in SD-45 Cecilia Tkaczyk won by only 18 votes after all the absentee and provisional votes were counted -- the Republican incumbent was actually declared the victor and sworn in before all the votes were counted. The Republicans are targeting both these seats.

    Simcha Felder would probably lose in his horribly red district if he tells voters that he will caucus with the Democrats. He may be the best we can do in that district but he isn't going to be the 32nd vote. Felder plus either of the two upstate seats already mentioned gives the Rethugs 32 votes in a 63 member.

    Furthermore there are two Dems who are under indictment for corruption: Malcolm Smith and John Sampson, both former Democratic leaders. We don't want either. Now, they might lose in the primary this year, but if they somehow get renominated (which means certain re-election in their overwhelmingly Democratic districts) we don't want to rely upon them to give us a majority.

    This is probably what Andrew Cuomo wants. :(

    •  Agree on all but Felder (1+ / 0-)
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      Justanothernyer

      Felders district contains a large population of Orthodox Jewish voters, and they tend to vote in a huge block and always have huge turn out numbers.  It is not and never was a Republican stronghold.  Prior to Felder, a Republican held the seat only for a few months after a special election.  Before that, it was more a Democratic stronghold:

      http://www.nytimes.com/...

      The Orthodox vote is a large part of why his margin of victory was so large.  Remember, this was a district that was specifically carved out during the last redistricting to take advantage of that large Jewish voting bloc:

      http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

      Felder himself noted that he was going to caucus with whoever offered him more perks and the ability to bring more results for his district, and as such the voters in his district really didn't seem to care about party affiliation:

      http://www.nytimes.com/...

      As I noted above in my own post, I suspect if Felder senses a change in power in the Senate back to Democrats, he will then start caucusing with the Democrats.  His constituents care less about party and more about his results to implement their desired agenda - and those results are easier to come by if you caucus with the party that controls your chamber.

      "There was no such thing as a "wealthy" hunter-gatherer. It is the creation of human society that has allowed the wealthy to become wealthy. As such, they have an obligation to pay a bit more to sustain that society than the not-so-wealthy." - Me

      by Darth Stateworker on Wed Jun 25, 2014 at 05:28:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  aren't there a few vulnerable (0+ / 0-)

      Republican seats, as well? It's my understanding that Lee Zeldin's seat is now in play, now that he's won the GOP nomination for the NY-1 Congressional seat, and a couple of others, as well.

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