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View Diary: PPP: Grimes up by 2 on McConnell (42 comments)

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  •  Close Kentucky Senate races (11+ / 0-)

    have disappointed the Democrats for years (Bunning vs. Baesler in '98, Bunning vs. Mongiardo in '04, McConnell vs. Lunsford in '08...), but this would be such a sweet victory.

    Have lived in (2012 districts): CA-28, CA-30, CA-24, IL-06, IL-14, IL-09, GA-01, GA-12, GA-10 (college), NY-09, and now IL-01 (law school).

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Thu Jun 26, 2014 at 12:32:13 PM PDT

    •  This is nothing like those (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      McConnell's polling was at or near 50% for pretty much the entire year in 2008. Lunsford's rarely escaped the low forties. In the end, Lunsford actually overperformed his polls.

      Compare that to 2014, when McConnell's highest poll number this cycle is lower than the lowest poll number he got in 2008. Grimes' numbers are also much higher than Lunsford's.

      I think we're gonna win this one. We found McConnell's kryptonite, except now that we're using it on him, we find out he's just a paper tiger.

    •  The dynamics of this race are virtually nothing... (0+ / 0-)

      The dynamics of this race are virtually nothing like those previous races. Also, there are particular factors about Alison that make her a definitively better candidate than most of those. The best out of that bunch was probably Mongiardo who came absurdly close to beating Bunning during a year that was not especially kind to Democrats in general.

      It's going to be interesting to watch how it shakes out, but Team Mitch has a pretty huge challenge in front of them. There's ample evidence to suggest his old tactics of going scorched earth won't work so well this time around for various reasons. Keep your eye on the negative trend lines for both candidates. If the polling stays neck and neck, the one with the lower negatives will have the clear advantage.

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