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View Diary: The Great European Heat Wave and Drought of 1540 (69 comments)

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  •  Hmm, I Didn't Know Climate Models Predicted Indi- (4+ / 0-)

    vidual year or weather events at all.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Wed Jul 02, 2014 at 02:49:02 PM PDT

    •  I believe that there are models that (10+ / 0-)

      allow probabilistic predictions on the basis of the results of large numbers of runs; if I’m not mistaken, that’s where the probabilistic El Niño predictions come from, for instance.  I’m guessing that the statement means that with current models, no plausible starting conditions produce such extreme results.

      •  even now, a suite of climate models is run (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BMScott

        to examine the impact of increased greenhouse gases.  We in the climate and weather business call this method "ensemble prediction".  Given that weather and climate are uncertain, albeit in different ways, ensemble prediction (also known as probabilistic weather and climate prediction) is a more scientific approach to these predictions.

        The 1% are becoming sociopaths. PERIOD. That wealth is making them sick. Entitled and unanswerable to anyone.Personal responsibility is for the suckers, er, the middle class and poor.. -- cagernaut, 30 October 2013

        by billlaurelMD on Fri Jul 04, 2014 at 07:08:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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