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View Diary: One-fifth of all Central and Eastern US seismicity tied to four Oklahoma Disposal Wells (67 comments)

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  •  If you see a 500 year event after fracking (6+ / 0-)

    you're correct in saying that it does not "prove" the point.  

    But given how long the interval is in that region between really large quakes, what you do have is this:  a very low probability event occurred after a given stimulus.

    There's a concept in probability called "prior" and "posterior" probabilities that come from a field call Bayesian statistics.

    A very short and simplified version: if you see certain events happen -- particularly very low probability events -- you should adjust your notion of what the true probability is going forward.

    So you are technically right.  But if there's some evidence of events that would cause your notion of what the probability was before the event, the optimal bet takes the recent events into account.  This is what the idea of a "posterior" probability tries to get across: what we see on the margin should change our notion of probability.

    To be on the wrong side of Dick Cheney is to be on the right side of history.

    by mbayrob on Mon Jul 07, 2014 at 04:58:44 PM PDT

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    •  Water is being removed with the oil (1+ / 0-)
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      The process is almost the opposite of fracking.

      The earthquakes are being triggered by deep well disposal of the waste water. Fracking can also produce waste water so that's what this situation and fracking have in common along with oil and gas.

      “Industry does everything they can and gets away with it almost all the time, whether it’s the coal industry, not the subject of this hearing, or water or whatever. They will cut corners, and they will get away with it. " Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D, WVa

      by FishOutofWater on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 06:54:19 AM PDT

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