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View Diary: Germany Escalates Conflict Over US Spying (190 comments)

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  •  Again... (2+ / 0-)
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    AoT, KenBee

    I live in Germany, I've been following this very closely in the German media since last year. Yes, a lot of people are outraged over the spying issue.

    But going by the polls and how the population has reacted during the last year, one can predict with near certainty that the population is going to let the two ruling parties handle this. There is only a very slight chance that this could develop into a scandal which could topple the government and that would have to be on the scale of revelations that Angela Merkel herself ordered the illegal data gathering against the law.

    And even then I would not be sure that there would be enough political will in the two ruling parties to risk the danger of new elections.

    As for how the Germany/US relationship will now develop, I already said that I can't make any accurate predictions. If I had to speculate, however, I think this will blow over in a few weeks, since Merkel is not the type of politician who is confrontational or populist. She prefers to work subtly towards her goals and tries to "sit out" any issues which make her look in a bad light.

    •  that has nothing to do with it (0+ / 0-)

      living in Germany (or not) doesn't make you an authority. That's a logical fallacy As to the rest I simply will await future developments.

      Der Weg ist das Ziel

      by duhban on Thu Jul 10, 2014 at 11:02:18 AM PDT

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      •  True (2+ / 0-)
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        AoT, KenBee

        Not everybody who lives in Germany is an expert on its politics.

        Me being a German historian of socio-economic history with a secondary focus on political sciences (and latin american studies, but that is aside the point), however, kinda makes me someone who has an idea on what is happening in his own country.

        •  if you say so (0+ / 0-)

          and I'll note again I'm not inherently disagreeing with you just pointing out trying to predict the outcome of a major decision is a crap shoot at best.

          Der Weg ist das Ziel

          by duhban on Thu Jul 10, 2014 at 11:13:10 AM PDT

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          •  Well (2+ / 0-)
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            AoT, duhban

            Political analysis is kind of what political sciences and being a historian is about. So it is in my purview to look back at how the current government and prior ones from the two ruling parties have handled themselves in international political conflicts like this. And to analyze how the German population has reacted in the last years (especially the last one) and how that will most probably play out with this latest issue.

            There would have to be a revelation of cataclysmic power to make Merkel unpopular enough to give the SPD the impetus to move from their current position. She currently has an approval of 71% with the population. You make the math.

            http://www.tagesschau.de/...

            •  here's the thign (0+ / 0-)

              I'm not going to get into where I have and have not lived. I accept your analysis while also not entirely agreeing with it. That's how it's going to be because I'm in a wait and see mode. Accept that or not but you will not be able to badger me into changing my mind.

              Der Weg ist das Ziel

              by duhban on Thu Jul 10, 2014 at 02:22:27 PM PDT

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              •  Not trying to (1+ / 0-)
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                duhban

                I've been long enough on the internet to know that changing minds almost never happens. The best I can do is cogently explain my position and (if challenged) defend it to the best of my ability. Any change of mind of anybody will have to happen on its own, anyway.

                •  namaste (0+ / 0-)

                  I look forward to our next meeting truly. I thank you for your time and the discussion. It was truly knowledge expanding.

                  Der Weg ist das Ziel

                  by duhban on Thu Jul 10, 2014 at 10:42:12 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

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