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View Diary: 12 Liberian health workers die of Ebola, others flee posts, 539 deaths out of 888 cases (84 comments)

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  •  scientists monitor (for) a number of strains (1+ / 0-)
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    G2geek

    H5N1, some mutation of 2009 H1N1 that no longer matches the vaccine, H7N9 (a new strain) or anything else.

    The prediction has been that we are overdue for a  flu pandemic as far as I know. Pigs and birds incubate flu Those animals are living at higher numbers and closer proximity to denser human populations than ever before, especially in E. Asia, allowing even more frequent opportunities for novel or semi-novel (to humans) viruses to arise.

    Yes, people should prepare for a serious pandemic. It is similar to having homeowners or rental insurance or the like, in my mind. The likelyhood of me using my rental insurance it in the next few years is not very high-I've had it for over a decade and never used it- but having it brings peace of mind. So does having some emergency supplies, which, yearly, cost about the same. Apparently the State department advises its people abroad to have 3 months of supplies. Even in Europe.

    I have to back of my statement about the sureness a bit, however, because I realized in responding to you that my deepest knowledge of this as fact (mainstream expectation of pandemic among researchers)  may predate the 2009 pandemic. (blush). Sorry about that. This led me to google search.

     I find that CDRAP says that messaging to the public is not accurate to say we are "overdue"

    Conversely, I find state public health websites (NY for one) that say "experts believe we are overdue for the next influenza pandemic". But these web pages may be old, or unfortunately not changed since 2009.

    Here in 2013 the BBC  (still) says we are "overdue".
    http://www.bbc.com/...

     There is also a newish betacoronavirus in the Middle East (MERS) that is similar to SARS and that's killed almost 300 people, but transmission of that may be slowing.

    •  yes, swine/avian route and others... (0+ / 0-)

      I'm familiar with the whole pig/duck agriculture thing in China.  Pigs as mixing-vessels etc.

      Looks like we're both on the same page about forecasts: that various reputable sources differ on the issue of "overdue."  I had gotten the impression that you meant that there was now a close consensus on "within a decade", but apparently not, which is slightly more reassuring (heh, insert gallows humor here;-).

      I know about MERS and SARS.  MERS is a potentially big deal that needs to be watched closely.  

      A friend of mine died of a mystery bug years ago and I have reason to believe it was an imported case of SARS that wasn't diagnosed due to where he was when he came down with symptoms (Canadian visiting USA).

      Agreed about preps; I came to the the "3 months of supplies" conclusion independently, so I'll assume it must be a convergent conclusion based on common underlying knowledge and logical inferences.  The other thing that's high on my preps list is heat emergency.  The big one of course is the Hayward Earthquake Fault, for which reason I and someone close to me intend to relocate outside the high danger zone as soon as we can afford it.

      The 2009 flu was a doozy; a few people close to me came down with it and it was hell on wheels for weeks.  I get my flu shot every year and understand the probability & statistics issues with yearly flu vax.  

      Speaking of which, anti-vaxxers are a threat level equivalent to bioterrorism by negligence.  "Don't even get me started on that topic."

      We got the future back. Uh-oh.

      by G2geek on Sat Jul 12, 2014 at 10:18:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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