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View Diary: When a poll showing the GOP up two in the generic ballot is actually decent news for the Democrats (54 comments)

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  •  I'm not sure what your point is. (6+ / 0-)

    It seems to be, "by focusing on the competitive races, the Politico sample accurately produces numbers that show less support for Obama and Democrats there, than a poll of the whole country."

    But if you want to use polls to estimate the results of the 2014 elections, that is exactly what you need.  

    •  point may be (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      No one poll is worth much. there are variables such as the outfit doing the polling, or the sample, or the way the questions were asked. the inferences others are drawing are using this poll as equivalent to other polls, which used different samples of districts. Bottom line: it may not support the inference that casual readers (i.e. MSM) make of it.

    •  I think the point is (9+ / 0-)

      that comparing this poll to other so-called "generic ballot" polls is not an apples-to-apples comparison.  In other words, your "normal" generic ballot poll is polling voters in "safe" districts and states (going both ways.)

      The point is that if you're comparing this poll to other generic ballot polls, this poll looks friendlier to Republicans because the sample is friendlier to Republicans.

      30, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Mon Jul 21, 2014 at 03:58:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Actually, it's not. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jasonhouse, redwagon, BelgianBastard

      If the "competitive" states included Texas, Utah, and Tennessee, you'd expect a rather different outcome than if they were California, Massachusetts, and Delaware, event if the poll results were identical, for the polled states.

    •  Here's the point: (9+ / 0-)

      We've got work to do.

      We are competitive in Senate races we shouldn't be competitive in. We have struggles ahead in some Senate races we've held. They're not out of reach for us though.

      If we get the right message out, and actually GOTV, we have a shot at winning the House.

      "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

      by zenbassoon on Mon Jul 21, 2014 at 04:55:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The point seems to be that: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BelgianBastard, Linda1961

      1. A generic poll of the nation as a whole would show a much different result.

      2. One would expect a generic poll of states and districts that lean red to be more favorable to the GOP than 44-42.

      3. With more than 4 months until the November elections, the Dems have a decent shot at holding the Senate, especially since they can lose up to 5 seats and still remain in control.

    •  Simple (0+ / 0-)

      The poll is NOT being sold by most of the media in the way which you (correctly) understand it - but rather as a NATIONAL snap shot -- perhaps the opening of a "wave" election - where the entire country is supposedly feeling the same way - but which regional polls put the lie to.  

      Another words, while the poll may (or may not, 2 points isn't much in close states, particularly 10 weeks before people pull the levers) be accurate FOR THE SPECIFIC BATTLEGROUNDS THAT IT COVERS -- those are NOT the entire country, but a selection of districts which everyone thinking already know are pink.  So, rather than showing a rush to inject masses of new GOP members into government - it shows absolute status quo  with us having a sucky senate map as far as defense is concerned, kinda like Asia in Risk, but not having the type of rush that we saw in 2010 - which is NOT what the MSM is working so hard to create the image of.

      That's all.

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