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View Diary: Turkish Gaza Flotilla to Launch Soon, With Escort (205 comments)

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  •  This is a dangerous situation. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AoT, too many people, corvo

    (1) If the Israelis back down, they look like they have been cowed.  I doubt they will back down to the Turks.

    (2) If the Turkish military does not respond to force with force, they look weak.  I don't think the Turks are going to back down.  Moreover, Turkish people have a high respect for their military.  They are not going to want to back down.

    (3) If shooting breaks out, it's war. And this looks a hell of a lot like the opening of WWI.  You know, the bit where two countries get into a war and the interlocking set of alliances drags the rest of the world in kicking and screaming.

    This is not good.

    •  What alliances does Israel have (6+ / 0-)

      that would draw other countries into the war? The US is the most likely,  and given the huge number of troops the Us has stationed in Europe the chances that the Us would go to war with other NATO countries is rather small. If the US says that an Israeli attack on the escort ships is a violation then it isn't a violation.

      It could end up with a hot war between Turkey and Israel, but the likelihood of that is low given Israel's nuclear capacity. I don't think Ergodan cares that much about Palestinians beyond the election either.

      But it could spiral out of control, most situations can. Look at Syria for an example of that. We'' see how far that spreads.

      No War but Class War

      by AoT on Sun Jul 27, 2014 at 08:23:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Moreover, (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AoT, Don midwest, smiley7, corvo

        the US just signed an $11 billion arms deal with Qatar, Hamas' ally, which it would not want to jeopardize.

      •  It will be out of Ergodan's hands (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AoT

        once any shooting starts.  He can't afford to be the guy who stabs the military in the back, and the history of Turkey shows that the military is not shy about reordering the civilian government as it finds necessary.

        I hope Turkey dials up the caution and Israel dials down the arrogance.

        (And I doubt that Netanyahu is going to nuke a NATO member.)

        •  The last military coup failed (0+ / 0-)

          And honestly, I expect that Erdogan's bluster on the issue will be more muted after the election.

          I hope Turkey dials up the caution and Israel dials down the arrogance.

          (And I doubt that Netanyahu is going to nuke a NATO member.)

          Somehow I doubt that Israel will dial down anything, unfortunately. I agree about Israel using a nuclear weapon on Turkey.

          No War but Class War

          by AoT on Mon Jul 28, 2014 at 08:37:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Treaty? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AoT, dharmafarmer, JoanMar

      On your point 3, Turkey is certainly a member of NATO and could invoke Chapter 5/6 solidarity from other members. Does Israel have such a treaty relationship with the USA or any other country? For all the words about special relationships and the mutual supplying of arms and equipment, I cannot recall a mutual defense treaty between the two.

      "Come to Sochi, visit the gay clubs and play with the bears" - NOT a Russian advertising slogan.

      by Lib Dem FoP on Sun Jul 27, 2014 at 08:26:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Does NATO have a stance on the blockade? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JoanMar, corvo

        Because if they recognize it as legitimate then I'm pretty sure article 5 wouldn't apply.

        For all the words about special relationships and the mutual supplying of arms and equipment, I cannot recall a mutual defense treaty between the two.
        Thank you for pointing this out. I had always just assumed there was a treaty. That really changes things.

        No War but Class War

        by AoT on Sun Jul 27, 2014 at 08:47:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It does seem there is an unwritten treaty (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        corvo

        when the senate is unanimous in its support of Israel.

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